FXUS63 KTOP 151729 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 1229 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dreary today with mostly cloudy skies and rain/drizzle - Much cooler and drier air moves in behind today's cold front for Friday and Saturday. Frost/freeze conditions appear likely Saturday morning. - Turning warmer Sunday into the middle of next week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 232 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 A closed mid-level low is advancing east across Colorado early this morning as another potent wave dives southeast across southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba into the Northern Plains. Energy lifting northeast ahead of the aforementioned low has generated another swath of rain and drizzle across the area. Limited instability has kept rainfall rates low, generally 0.25" per hour or less, and expect this to remain the case. Slightly higher rainfall rates and intermittent lightning have been observed across southeast Kansas. This will lift towards Anderson County over the next hour or two. Will hold onto the Flood Watch for now, but the overall potential for flooding is low and anticipate being able to cancel the Flood Watch early. Continued lift from the approaching mid-level low will lead to periodic rain and/or drizzle for much of the day today. The northern stream wave absorbs the closed low and pushes a cold front through the area by this evening. Gusty northwest winds behind the front usher in cooler and drier air for Friday and Saturday. CAA from breezy north winds and cloud cover will keep highs in the 50s on Friday! Model soundings show steep low-level lapse rates leading to weak instability; REFS and HREF mean for MUCAPE is ~25 J/kg. As a result, there is the potential for a couple of pop-up showers Friday afternoon and evening, which could mix down gustier winds aloft. The most likely area for this looks to be east into Missouri, so have kept a dry forecast for now. A strong Canadian high pressure slides overhead Friday night into Saturday morning. Light winds and clearing skies set the stage for the first frost/freeze of the season with lows forecast to be in the low to mid 30s. Areas north of Interstate 70 continue to have the highest likelihood of falling to or below freezing; NBM probabilities of reaching freezing are 40- 65% in this area. Will likely need headlines frost/freeze headlines, but uncertainty remains in exact areas of freeze vs frost. The surface high moves east through the day Saturday, allowing southerly low-level flow to return and a warming trend to ensue early next week. Highs will be near-normal by Sunday and back into the 70s Monday through the middle of next week. Guidance is consistent in a shortwave ejecting across the Plains on Monday, but dry low-levels favor this wave passing through dry. Better precipitation chances come Wednesday-Thursday of next week as flow becomes southwesterly ahead of a western US trough, although variability among guidance is high. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1223 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Challenging forecast as a system continues to work through the area today so amendments to TAFs could be needed for the afternoon timeframe. Light and scattered rain showers could linger for the first few hours of this TAF period, but ceilings should generally continue to lift through the afternoon. Northwest winds also increase this afternoon with gusts of 20 to 25 kts becoming more likely. There could be a brief period late this evening where winds increase further as a secondary front rotates through the region. VFR is then expected to return tonight. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Flanagan AVIATION...Teefey