FXUS63 KTOP 190603
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
103 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe thunderstorms becoming numerous early to mid afternoon today
  and spreading east to southeast this evening. Very large hail, 
  damaging winds, and tornadoes all quite possible. 

- Flash flooding remains a concern through tonight especially where 
  heavy rain fall Sunday night.

- Gusty south winds on track for the next several hours in 
  southwestern areas.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

Warm, humid airmass was surging north into central Kansas ahead of a 
cold front toward a nearly-stationary front just northeast of 
northeast Kansas with a modest upper wave just upstream. Instability 
of 3000 J/kg already commonplace in central Kansas at 17Z with 40-50 
knots of deep-layer shear. Vectors for this layer remain close to 
parallel to the front so there is some uncertainty in how long 
storms can remain discrete, but some backing of low-level flow and 
otherwise good setup brings all severe hazards in play. Main area of 
concern over the next few hours is north-central Kansas with storms 
spreading east and southeast and becoming more widespread with time. 
Threats should turn more to wind versus strong tornado in eastern 
areas as mode shifts to more linear. Overall a more progressive 
system should keep storm residence somewhat limited, but areas that 
saw heavy rain Sunday night will not take much more rain to 
experience flash flooding and intense updrafts with PW values around 
1.5 inches will bring quick rainfall. Storms push southeast before 
dawn with flash flooding threat falling off, though rivers and 
creeks may be high for a few more days. Surface winds 

Next few days continue to look benign with modified Canadian high 
pressure in place with cooler temperatures. Moisture return in the 
mid-levels supports at least moderate precipitation chances Thursday 
into Thursday night but instability remains modest. A more unstable 
airmass should return around the holiday weekend though forcing for 
ascent is not readily apparent.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1256 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

A few rumbles of thunder possible to begin the period at KTOP/KFOE
as the cold front continues to push through. A brief period of IFR
conditions for part of the overnight period at all terminals then
cigs improve to marginal VFR and last into midday before lifting to
VFR by mid to late afternoon. A steady breeze should remain from the
north through the day before calming into the evening.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for KSZ008-KSZ020-KSZ026-
KSZ034-KSZ039-KSZ040-KSZ054-KSZ055-KSZ056-KSZ058-KSZ059.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Poage
AVIATION...Drake