FXUS64 KTSA 080442
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1142 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES... 
Updated at 1138 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

 - Isolated to widely scattered storm Wednesday - Thursday with
   localized downburst winds possible.

 - Heat builds Wednesday into Thursday and heat advisories may be
   needed.

 - Storm chances trend higher Friday through the weekend and
   possibly into early next week. Temperatures likely near to
   slightly below normal through this same time frame.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Wednesday)
Issued at 1138 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

The weak frontal zone that currently extends through far SE OK
will lift northward through the day Wednesday. Dewpoints will
trend higher for most locals by afternoon and heat index values of
100 to 105 will be common. A brief window of heat advisory
criteria may develop but confidence is low in both extent and
duration at this time. Isolated afternoon storms are likely
Wednesday afternoon most anywhere across the forecast area.
Coverage likely remains low but will include mentionable precip
chances to reflect the potential. Stronger storms will be capable
of downburst winds. 

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 1118 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Stronger wave moves into central Plains Wednesday night with the
low level jet responding with a corridor of high based convection
possibly spreading into NE OK late Wednesday night through
Thursday morning. The veered low level flow and potential for
lower dewpoints to mix eastward should result in the hottest
temperatures of the week by Thursday afternoon. Heat advisory
headlines appear likely at this time. Afternoon storm potential
Thursday varies amongst model solutions but a low chance across
northern locations appears warranted. This corridor will also be 
nearer slightly stronger flow so an uptick in severe potential 
could develop pending storm development.

An MCS is expected to develop Thursday night across the High
Plains and spread eastward toward the forecast area Thursday 
night into early Friday. This scenario carries uncertainties 
typical with MCS evolution, but the pattern is favorable and 
higher precip chances will be shown for northern portions of the 
forecast area.

The pattern evolution over the weekend generally favors building 
ridging over the western CONUS which then becomes centered over 
the northern Plains by early next week. This keeps the local
region on the periphery of the the upper ridge and allows for
daily precip chances with temps near to possibly slightly below
normal. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 612 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Aside from the potential for a storm in or around the KFSM
terminal in the near term, VFR conditions will prevail through the
period with some morning mid cloud across eastern OK and afternoon
cu at all sites. The main exception will be potential for fog at 
KFYV. There was dense fog there last night but that was also 
following rain. Guidance is a lot less bullish with the fog 
forecast for tonight, but to hedge the going forecast for TEMPO 
light MVFR fog will be kept.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   72  97  78  99 /   0  20  10  20 
FSM   73  96  76  98 /   0  20  10  20 
MLC   72  96  78  98 /  20  20  10  10 
BVO   68  95  76  97 /   0   0  20  20 
FYV   68  92  74  94 /   0  20  10  20 
BYV   67  91  72  94 /  10  20   0  20 
MKO   71  95  77  97 /   0  20   0  20 
MIO   68  93  74  95 /   0   0  10  20 
F10   70  96  76  97 /   0  20   0  20 
HHW   72  94  76  96 /  20  20   0  10 

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...30