FXUS64 KTSA 090449 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1149 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1145 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 - Hot and humid conditions Thursday with large area of heat advisory conditions. - Isolated to widely scattered storms Thursday through Friday generally along and north of Interstate 40. - Storm chances trend higher late Friday through the weekend and possibly into early next week. Temperatures trend nearer to seasonal normals with the increase in daily rain chances. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Thursday) Issued at 1145 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Low level jet has intensified with early signs of high based convection developing near the OK / KS border region. This convection is expected to expand and spread east through Thursday morning before diminishing by early afternoon. While early day cloud cover and/out outflow may temporarily slow the daily warm up, the veered low level flow and placement of the low level thermal ridge favors temps still reaching the warmest levels of the week area wide by afternoon. Dewpoints were vastly under forecast on Wednesday, and while they are likely to be some lower on Thursday, the forecast will favor the higher value scenarios with the resultant heat index values supportive of a broad region heat advisory. Isolated to widely scattered storms remain possible Thursday afternoon into the evening and somewhat stronger flow aloft would support a severe risk primarily due to downburst winds. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday Night through Wednesday) Issued at 1132 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Convection may again expand north of the local forecast area Thursday night however confidence is low in how far south these storms would spread into the day Friday. Forecasts will retain low chances generally north of Interstate 40. The slow moving cold front will struggle to make southward advance into the region, however the upper ridge will continue to amplify across the western states and waves passing on the ridge periphery will aid in eventually pushing the boundary into the region late Friday or during the day Saturday. This boundary will then act as a favored corridor for daily shower and storm chances through the weekend into early next week. Locally heavy rainfall is possible with deep moisture and slower storm motions. The upper ridge will intensify as it re-centers over the central and northern Plains by early next week with its influence gradually expanding southward into the local area. Lower daily rain chances and warmer temps are forecast by the middle of next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 632 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Isolated to widely scattered convection ongoing this evening across wrn AR, but probability of impacting any site too low to mention in forecasts. Low level jet develops late tonight, which will result in LLWS all sites for a few hours. High-based SHRA and isolated TSRA possible across nern OK and nwrn AR late tonight into Thursday morning, but again probability of impacts at any one terminal too low to mention at this time. South to southwest wind becomes gusty mid morning through the end of the forecast period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 79 98 79 97 / 20 20 20 20 FSM 77 98 78 98 / 10 10 10 20 MLC 79 97 80 96 / 10 10 10 10 BVO 75 97 76 95 / 30 30 20 20 FYV 72 93 76 93 / 10 20 20 20 BYV 73 94 75 91 / 10 20 20 20 MKO 78 96 78 96 / 10 20 20 20 MIO 75 93 76 93 / 20 30 30 20 F10 77 97 79 97 / 10 20 10 10 HHW 77 97 77 96 / 10 10 10 10 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Thursday for OKZ049-053-055>068-070-071-073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354-376. AR...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Thursday for ARZ119-120-129- 219-220-229. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...69