FXUS64 KTSA 091134 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 634 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1145 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 - Hot and humid conditions Thursday with large area of heat advisory conditions. - Isolated to widely scattered storms Thursday through Friday generally along and north of Interstate 40. - Storm chances trend higher late Friday through the weekend and possibly into early next week. Temperatures trend nearer to seasonal normals with the increase in daily rain chances. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Thursday) Issued at 1145 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Low level jet has intensified with early signs of high based convection developing near the OK / KS border region. This convection is expected to expand and spread east through Thursday morning before diminishing by early afternoon. While early day cloud cover and/out outflow may temporarily slow the daily warm up, the veered low level flow and placement of the low level thermal ridge favors temps still reaching the warmest levels of the week area wide by afternoon. Dewpoints were vastly under forecast on Wednesday, and while they are likely to be some lower on Thursday, the forecast will favor the higher value scenarios with the resultant heat index values supportive of a broad region heat advisory. Isolated to widely scattered storms remain possible Thursday afternoon into the evening and somewhat stronger flow aloft would support a severe risk primarily due to downburst winds. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday Night through Wednesday) Issued at 1132 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026 Convection may again expand north of the local forecast area Thursday night however confidence is low in how far south these storms would spread into the day Friday. Forecasts will retain low chances generally north of Interstate 40. The slow moving cold front will struggle to make southward advance into the region, however the upper ridge will continue to amplify across the western states and waves passing on the ridge periphery will aid in eventually pushing the boundary into the region late Friday or during the day Saturday. This boundary will then act as a favored corridor for daily shower and storm chances through the weekend into early next week. Locally heavy rainfall is possible with deep moisture and slower storm motions. The upper ridge will intensify as it re-centers over the central and northern Plains by early next week with its influence gradually expanding southward into the local area. Lower daily rain chances and warmer temps are forecast by the middle of next week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 634 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Scattered to broken high clouds are anticipated across the CWA through the TAF period. A period of mid clouds exists during the day as scattered showers with low thunder potential moves across northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas. Will continue with VCSH for a few hours this morning north of Interstate 40. A slight chance for redevelopment is forecast this afternoon, with low chances for showers/storms overnight tonight across parts of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. With uncertainty of coverage and impacts to any one terminal will continue to keep TAFs dry this afternoon/tonight. Any storm that can develop will be capable of producing gusty winds and locally heavy rains. Winds through the period remain southerly for most locations, and look to be breezy during the day today. VFR conditions remain forecast through the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 98 79 97 78 / 20 20 20 30 FSM 98 78 98 78 / 10 10 20 10 MLC 97 80 96 79 / 10 10 10 10 BVO 97 76 95 74 / 30 20 20 40 FYV 93 76 93 75 / 20 2020 30 BYV 94 75 91 73 / 20 20 20 40 MKO 96 78 96 78 / 20 20 20 20 MIO 93 76 93 74 / 30 30 20 50 F10 97 79 97 78 / 20 10 10 10 HHW 97 77 96 77 / 10 10 10 10 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053-055>068-070-071-073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276- 354-376. AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ119-120-129-219-220-229. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...20