FXUS64 KTSA 091700 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1200 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1200 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 - Hot and humid conditions Thursday with large area of heat advisory conditions. - Isolated to widely scattered storms Thursday through Friday generally along and north of Interstate 40. - Storm chances trend higher late Friday through the weekend and possibly into early next week. Temperatures trend nearer to seasonal normals with the increase in daily rain chances. && .SHORT TERM... (Through tonight) Issued at 1200 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Morning showers across portions of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas associated with the low level jet will continue to decrease and push east into the early afternoon. Widely scattered afternoon showers with isolated thunderstorms will still be possible, largely north of I-40 as heat and humidity build through the afternoon. Stronger flow aloft would also support some severe potential with downburst winds the main concern through the period. This afternoon still trends to be a hot one, though the early morning showers and cloud cover have slowed the warm up slightly. More veered surface flow form the southwest and favorable placement of the low level thermal ridge will allow temps to approach 100 degrees across portions of northeast Oklahoma this afternoon. Dewpoint temperatures are running a little less than yesterday at this time, but still humid conditions can be expected to combine with the temperatures to produce widespread heat index values ranging from 105 to 110 degrees across the forecast area. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for much of the area and trends will continue to be monitored for a possible upgrade to a warning for some locations if needed. More wind and high dewpoints across the region will again lead to very warm overnight lows in the upper 70s to lower 80s tonight. Bowlan pushing rain chances further south and out of the local region. && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Thursday) Issued at 1200 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Another complex of storms looks to expand in coverage across Kansas later tonight into early Friday morning. Again, some of this activity could sneak far enough south to get into the forecast area Friday morning. Generally just lighter showers with isolated thunder is expected with any activity through the morning hours. Hot and humid conditions continue again on Friday with more heat headlines likely needed from later shifts. Similar to Thursday, widely scattered afternoon showers and storms will again be possible north of I-40, with some severe risk present. The upper ridge will amplify over the western CONUS and a couple of shortwaves will dive south through the forecast area over the weekend, pushing a frontal boundary into the area by Saturday. This will lead to more favored shower and thunderstorm development by Saturday afternoon through the weekend. Locally heavy rainfall will be the main threat with the deep moisture in place and slower storm motions expected. Better rain chances will slowly drift south across the forecast area by late Sunday into early next week. Temperatures more near the seasonal normal can be expected from late weekend into early next week in the wake of the passing boundary. By this time, the upper ridge will intensify and build northeastward across the Central and Northern Plains. Influence form the ridge looks to slowly expand southward into the local region through mid week, with lower daily rain chances and warming temperatures the result in the forecast though the middle part of next week. Bowlan && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1200 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 A few showers continue that may briefly lead to light rain at the NE OK and far NW AR terminals early in the period but impacts to aviation should be minimal. VFR conditions should prevail at all sites through the period, with LLWS impacts once again expected overnight tonight. Chances for shower and thunderstorm impacts will be low at any one site and any mention will be left out of the TAFs for now. An MCS expected to develop to the west of the area is expected to diminish late tonight/early tomorrow morning before reaching the NE OK terminals. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 81 98 80 96 / 20 20 20 50 FSM 81 98 79 96 / 10 20 10 30 MLC 81 96 80 96 / 10 10 10 10 BVO 78 96 76 94 / 20 20 30 40 FYV 79 93 77 91 / 20 20 30 60 BYV 78 93 75 90 / 20 20 40 70 MKO 80 97 79 94 / 20 20 20 50 MIO 77 94 75 91 / 20 20 40 50 F10 80 97 79 95 / 10 10 10 30 HHW 78 96 77 94 / 10 10 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053-055>068- 070-071-073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354-376. AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ119-120-129-219- 220-229. && $$ SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM....04 AVIATION...22