FXUS64 KTSA 152315 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 615 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1140 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 - Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms will occur through Thursday evening. - Gusty north winds behind a cold front tonight and Friday, with limited fire weather concerns across far southeast OK. - Much cooler and pleasant weather by Friday and into the upcoming weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Through tonight) Issued at 1140 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 The overall threat of additional heavy rainfall has diminished this morning, though periods of mainly light to moderate rain will continue through this evening. Flood Watch will expire at 18z. Additional showers and thunderstorms continue to develop across northwest TX, and should expand more northeast with time as cold front moves into northeast OK later this afternoon and through the remainder of the local area this evening. The net effect will be for a gradual shift southeastward of the main axis of rainfall with time, with amounts gradually decreasing as the current tropical connection is ultimately pinched off. As a result the farther southeast you go, the less likelihood of significant rainfall, with far southeast OK seeing notably lighter rainfall amounts compared to the rest of the area. In addition the cold front will usher in a much cooler and drier airmass with gusty north winds, providing the first real taste of fall weather. Current data suggests wind gusts will be close to advisory levels, though mainly in the 30-35 mph range both tonight and much of Friday. Some traditionally windier locations will probably see a few gusts right around 40, but at this point do not anticipate widespread or prolonged gusts in that range. The winds will raise some degree of fire weather concerns Friday, especially in some of high terrain of far southeast OK where more persistent gusts likely, along with the decreased likelihood of wetting rainfall. && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Thursday) Issued at 1140 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Wind speeds will eventually die down Friday evening with mostly clear skies. This will result in significantly colder overnight lows, potentially not far from freezing in some locations near the OK/KS border (20-30% probability of 32 or lower). Patchy frost could develop in sheltered areas, so tender vegetation may need some protection both Friday and Saturday nights. Temperatures will return more to normal levels by early next week then gradually rise above normal through mid-week with dry conditions. Next weather system will approach from the west, possibly by the end of next week or the weekend with rain chances returning. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 615 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 A strong cold front is making its way southward through the area, bringing a period of MVFR ceilings and a dramatic increase in wind speeds and gusts from the north to northwest following its passage. The front has passed through BVO/TUL/RVS and should reach MLC by 01Z, XNA/ROG/FYV by 02Z and FSM by 04Z. Light rain is occurring with the frontal passage, with minor visibility reductions expected for a few hours. Ceilings should improve overnight at each site as the front pulls away. However, wraparound moisture should lead to additional lower cloud development for the NE OK and NW AR terminals, most likely at VFR heights but some potential for another round of MVFR ceilings. Winds will begin to decrease some at the NE OK sites 21-22Z, although remain gusty through the end of the TAF period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 47 59 39 60 / 10 0 0 0 FSM 53 64 44 67 / 30 0 0 0 MLC 50 62 42 64 / 50 0 0 0BVO 42 58 33 60 / 10 0 0 0 FYV 44 59 36 63 / 40 0 0 0 BYV 46 58 40 62 / 40 0 0 0 MKO 48 60 40 62 / 30 0 0 0 MIO 45 56 36 59 / 30 0 0 0 F10 48 59 39 61 / 30 0 0 0 HHW 54 64 44 66 / 20 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...14 LONG TERM....14 AVIATION...22