FXUS64 KTSA 180433 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1133 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1145 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 - Windy with isolated to scattered showers and storms through Monday evening. Limited severe risk. - Numerous showers and storms Monday night into NE OK spreading southward Tuesday. Severe weather possible along with locally heavy rainfall. - Cooler temperatures Wednesday with continued low rain chances through the remainder of the week. && .SHORT TERM... (Through Monday Night) Issued at 1145 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 Strong low level jet has developed across the local region with minimal boundary layer decoupling allowing for periodic strong wind gusts through the early Monday morning hours. Weak disturbance lifting from N TX into W AR along with ongoing strong moist advection and a weakly capped airmass warrants low shower and storm chances through Monday morning primarily far E OK and NW AR. A lull in rain chances appears likely Monday afternoon through Monday evening though strong gusty winds will continue. Focus will become the cold front and storms developing across KS Monday evening and then spreading south into NE OK near or slightly after midnight. Fcst soundings suggest the line of storms will have a time frame to remain severe into NE OK Monday night before encountering stronger inhibition prompting a weakening trend. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 1145 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 Showers and storms will be ongoing early Tuesday with a continued southward advance through the day. An uptick in storm intensity is possible through the day Tuesday before storms clear the forecast area, however the bulk of severe weather is likely to focus south and west of the forecast area by Tuesday evening. Heavy rainfall is possible through the day Tuesday however latest guidance remains progressive with the line of storms which would keep that threat localized. Showers and storms are likely to persist into the day Wednesday as another round of lift interacts with the elevated frontal zone across the region. Lesser instability will limit the severe weather risk. Noticeably cooler temps follow the front and persist through mid week. The late week pattern maintains one or more waves passing across the region supporting continued daily shower and thunderstorm chances. Temperatures are likely to be near or slightly below normal. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 656 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026 Overall, this will be a low-confidence aviation forecast. VFR continues to prevail across the district early this evening. This should gradually change later tonight and overnight tonight as MVFR cigs develop and overspread much of the area through daybreak Monday. Low ceilings are expected to mix-out and lift across eastern OK by late morning, likely sticking around over the AR terminals into the afternoon. Latest model guidance shows brief, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms periodically occurring this evening and overnight; most terminals should stay dry, but did include -SHRA at KTUL and KRVS overnight. A better chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms will occur near or just before sunrise Monday morning with models shows an uptick in convection. Included PROB30 groups for lightning/thunder mid-late morning for the OK terminals and through the afternoon at the western AR terminals. Forecast confidence is low on timing and duration of precipitation chances and TAFs may need to be amended and adjusted. Ceilings should gradually lift and become widespread VFR by mid-late afternoon. South winds will remain breezy and gusty through the period, with gusts in excess of 30 knots for a few locations Monday afternoon. Mejia && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 73 87 67 74 / 20 20 80 70 FSM 72 89 72 85 / 30 30 10 80 MLC 74 88 74 82 / 20 20 20 90 BVO 71 88 61 71 / 20 20 80 50 FYV 71 86 72 81 / 30 30 20 90 BYV 72 85 72 82 / 30 30 20 90 MKO 73 87 70 78 / 20 30 30 90 MIO 73 86 67 74 / 20 30 70 80 F10 73 87 70 78 / 20 20 40 80 HHW 72 87 72 82 / 30 20 10 90 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT Monday for OKZ055>064-067-154-254- 354. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...67