FXUS64 KTSA 220408
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1108 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES... 
Updated at 1058 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

 - Hot to very hot conditions will continue for the next week,
   with the only exceptions being around active thunderstorm 
   activity.

 - Daily showers and thunderstorms are expected through Monday, 
   bringing areas of locally heavy rain and strong gusty winds, 
   but most areas will see only minimal rainfall.

 - Areas of localized fire weather concerns will persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Saturday)
Issued at 1058 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

An upper level shortwave will pass through the area late tonight 
into mid morning, bringing another round of elevated showers and 
storms. These storms may result in locally heavy rainfall, but 
most areas will only see minimal precipitation. In fact, the 
storms that will impact the area later are already present in 
Nebraska. CAMs match the radar presentation reasonably well, but 
are too dry across central Kansas where additional storms have
formed. This may matter because the 00z CAMs confine the majority
of the storm activity to central Oklahoma. If storms get going 
further to the east that would be very relevant for the eventual 
outcome. Suffice it to say, uncertainty is fairly high for exactly
where storms move in Saturday morning. Either way, the dry lower 
boundary layer will favor gusty winds, with a marginal (5 percent)
chance for severe winds near stronger storms. 

Temperatures will be tricky Saturday considering the timing of the 
storms. Areas away from convective activity will again be in the 
upper 90s to near 100 F, but rain cooled areas may see a cooler day 
in the lower 90s. Will let the day shift decide on any heat
products based on how storm activity evolves.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 1058 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

The upper level ridge will remain nearly stationary to the west of 
the area for the next few days. Temperatures should be mostly in 
the mid 90s in the north, but warmer in the south near 100 F. 
Behind some storm activity Monday morning (see below), model 
guidance rapidly increases temperatures as downslope southwest 
flow develops. Monday or Tuesday may be the warmest days this 
week, with some slight cooling mid week in response to a grazing 
distant trough in the Midwest. Even so, it'll stay plenty hot, 
with mid 90s to low 100s to close out the week. 

The displaced center of high pressure will keep somewhat enhanced 
mid level flow and periodic shortwaves moving through for the next 
few days. The current favored timing for the next such shortwave 
will be later Sunday into Monday morning. Model guidance remains 
on the weaker side, but there could be a narrow corridor of 
decent rainfall wherever storms set up. The dry boundary layer 
will continue to support strong gusty winds as well. The same 
general pattern will remain in place through next week, but as the
ridge gradually flexes into the area shower activity will 
gradually become more isolated. 

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 640 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Few to broken high clouds are anticipated into the overnight hours
before increasing mid and high clouds develop late tonight into
Saturday. During the day Saturday scattered to overcast mid and
high clouds are forecast with the potential for a MCS to drop
south/southeast through the CWA. Uncertainties remain with timing,
thus will continue Prob30 groups for general timing of greater
potential. Also, there remains a low potential for storms early
morning Saturday for parts of northeast Oklahoma. Will also hold
onto a Prob30 window for this activity as well, though the greater
potential is with the MCS. Withinany convection, brief heavy
rains, strong wind gusts and possibly brief MVFR conditions could
develop. Behind the exiting MCS, cloud cover looks to become more
scattered high clouds. Winds through the period remain 
light/variable outside of the convection. Also, VFR conditions are
forecast outside of any convection. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   75  97  74  97 /  20  40  10  10 
FSM   75 101  74  99 /  10  30  20  20 
MLC   75 101  73 103 /  20  30  20  10 
BVO   70  96  69  95 /  30  40  10  20 
FYV   72  96  68  94 /   0  50  20  20 
BYV   73  94  69  92 /   0  50  20  20 
MKO   72  97  71  97 /  20  40  10  10 
MIO   73  95  70  93 /  20  50  10  20 
F10   73  98  72  99 /  20  30  10  10 
HHW   75 101  74 102 /  10  20  20  10 

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...20