FXUS64 KTSA 221730
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1230 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES... 
Updated at 1211 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

 - Temperatures will above normal with continued periods of high
   heat stress will continue through week. The possible exception
   being around active thunderstorm activity.

 - Daily showers and thunderstorms are expected through Monday, 
   bringing areas of locally heavy rain and strong gusty winds, 
   but most areas will see only minimal rainfall.

 - Areas of localized fire weather concerns will persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Near term focus will be storm development through the afternoon
and the most likely corridor will be downstream of wave currently
passing across SE KS. Satellite trends show Cu field developing
into NW AR and likely marks the onset of lift impinging upon an 
increasingly unstable airmass. Short term guidance has been in 
good agreement with storms developing across either far E OK or NW
AR by mid afternoon and spreading ESE through the evening. This 
idea seems in line with observations. Slightly stronger flow aloft
and ample instability will support a risk of severe weather with 
the focus becoming more east of the local region by early evening.
Further west precip coverage will remain low, however ample cloud
cover and cold front pushing south behind the SE KS wave are all 
helping keep temps below advisory levels at least for today. 
Overnight there may be renewed elevated convection along a 
corridor atop the stalled frontal zone. Considerable uncertainty 
in this placement but mentionable chances for far eastern OK and 
NW AR through Sunday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Saturday)
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Hot temperatures return Sunday as cloud cover and precip chances
appear lower during the day. Thunderstorm complex may develop
Sunday evening into the overnight areas and spread across the area
with the most likely zone currently seen as far eastern OK and
western AR through Monday morning. Hot temperatures and high heat
stress conditions will remain a concern through early week as any
relief from persistent rain will be localized. Potential for minor
heat relief and a chance of shower and storms may return by mid to
late week as the upper ridge now appears to remain anchored across
the western CONUS leaving NW flow aloft through the Plains. This
would allow a chance for a weak cold front to move into the region
and at least bring a chance of rain and slightly cooler 
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 639 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop later this
morning and continue through the afternoon, with convective
impacts possible at all sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   98  74  97  76 /  30  20  10  30 
FSM  102  74  99  75 /  30  40  20  30 
MLC  100  73 103  78 /  30  30  10  20 
BVO   97  70  95  71 /  30  10  10  40 
FYV   97  69  94  70 /  30  30  20  60 
BYV   94  69  91  69 /  40  20  20  60 
MKO   98  72  97  74 /  30  20  10  30 
MIO   95  70  93  71 /  30  20  20  60 
F10   99  72  99  76 /  30  20  10  20 
HHW  100  74 102  78 /  20  30  10   0 

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...05