FXUS64 KTSA 231748 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1248 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1245 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 - Temperatures above normal with continued periods of high heat stress will continue through week. The possible exception being around active thunderstorm activity. - Limited risk of severe weather Sunday night into early Monday with damaging wind potential the primary hazard. - Areas of localized fire weather concerns will persist until widespread beneficial rainfall occurs. && .SHORT TERM... (Through tonight ) Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Notable mid level wave currently passing western KS will continue southeastward increasing forcing across the local region this evening through tonight. Guidance has remained in good agreement in developing a corridor of showers and storms from NE OK through western AR from late evening through the overnight hours before gradually diminishing through Monday morning. No obvious reason to disagree and the forecast precip chances will align accordingly. Forecast profiles maintain a dry sub cloud layer and strengthening mid level flow through the overnight hours favoring localized wind damage potential. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Sunday) Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Extensive cloud cover and ongoing precip will influence temperature trends Monday with a large range in temps likely across the forecast area by afternoon. Heat advisories may be needed for portions of the area as confidence increases in temperature trends. Hot temperatures are more likely across a larger portion of the area on Tuesday ahead of the next weak cold front. Blended guidance favors a minor cool down by Wednesday with very low precip chances across the region. Any cool down will likely be brief with hot temperatures expanding area wide by late week. Overall precip chances remain low beyond Monday and the lack of widespread beneficial rainfall will drive localized fire weather concerns through the week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1201 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 VFR conditions all sites until after midnight, then any reduced aviation impacts will be dependent on showers and thunderstorms that are expected to develop into ern OK and nwrn AR overnight into Monday morning. Maintained PROB30 groups after 06z nern OK and nwrn AR sites, and continued PROB30 groups nwrn AR sites after 12z, as convection will be slower to clear that area. Extensive mid and high clouds through the period, with generally low level easterly wind. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 77 99 74 99 / 30 20 0 10 FSM 76 99 74 104 / 30 30 0 0 MLC 79 104 77 106 / 10 20 20 0 BVO 69 96 70 97 / 40 20 0 0 FYV 71 92 70 99 / 60 40 10 0 BYV 68 90 69 95 / 70 70 10 0 MKO 75 99 73 101 / 30 20 0 0 MIO 69 93 71 96 / 70 30 10 0 F10 76 102 74 102 / 20 20 0 10 HHW 77 103 76 104 / 0 20 20 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053-060-061- 064>067-070-071-073>075-176-272. AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ129-219-220. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...69