FXUS65 KTWC 080955
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
255 AM MST Wed Jul 8 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected each day this week, with the potential for an increase
in storm coverage over the weekend. Hot temperatures for much 
of the week before cooling off this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The monsoon ridge axis continues to slowly re-
orientate itself into a E-W orientation over the next 24 hrs 
with the high centered W of nrn Baja. Well above normal high 
temperatures continue with moderate to major HeatRisk for much 
of the area. Extreme Heat Warning for the much of Pima county, 
south-central and southeast Pinal county and the Gila River vly
of Graham county has been extended until Thursday evening.

Early morning satellite imagery showed partly to mostly cloudy
conditions while KEMX radar showed elevated light showers, 
sprinkles or virga moving W-SW across the area. Clouds/showers
dissipating by 4 am. Satellite derived PWAT values are up, for 
the most part versus 24 hours ago, and ranged from 0.80" east
to up to 1.35" from Tucson west. to 1.15". At the surface dew 
points were ranged from the upper 40s to the upper 50s with 
localized spots in the lower 60s. 

Convective activity today will shift a bit further west than
yesterday with western extent over south-central Pinal and
central Pima county. Main threat from storms this afternoon and 
early evening will be outflow winds of 35 to 50 mph, blowing 
dust (especially W/NW of Tucson) and brief moderate rain with 
strongest cells. Steering flow will move storms from generally 
the west.

Thursday and Friday: The center of the monsoon high that is west
of nrn Baja today lifts NE across the state during this period.
Some minor drying of PWATs across the area which may limit 
thunderstorm activity to mainly south and east of Tucson both 
days. Highs remaining on the hot side.

This weekend: As the monsoon high moves into the central Rockies
the flow aloft becomes more favorable out of the E-SE. PWATs,
per ensembles, increase areawide thanks to moisture influx from
Sonoran thunderstorm outflows moving north and potential gulf 
surges. The added moisture this will increase the flash flooding
threat with Saturday, at this time, likely having the highest 
threat. Highs will be around normal.

Active monsoon pattern continues early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 09/12Z.
Debris clouds AOA 10k ft AGL cont to diminish thru 08/15z.
Clouds bases of 9k-11k ft AGL re-developing aft 08/18z along
with ISOLD-SCT -SHRA/-TSRA. Potential for outflow winds up to 
45 kts thru 09/04Z. Clouds and storms diminishing aft 09/05z
thru end of valid pd. Outside of thunderstorm outflows, SFC 
wind less than 12 kts, favoring a WLY/NWLY direction during the 
afternoon/early evening hours and variable in direction at other
times. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Above normal high temperatures (4-7 degrees) 
through Thursday, with highs lowering to around normal over the 
upcoming weekend. Min RH values in the lower elevations in the 
13-17 percent range through Friday, increasing 5-10 percent by 
late in the weekend into early next week. Outside of any 
thunderstorm outflow winds, 20- foot winds will generally be 
less than 15 mph into early next week. There will be a daily 
chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly during the 
afternoon/evening hours this work week. There is the potential 
for increasing thunderstorm chances and coverage this weekend.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Thursday for AZZ501-502-
  504>506-509.

&&

$$

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