FXUS63 KUNR 152328
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
528 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread wind gusts of 45 to 55 mph with sporadic gusts of 60
  mph expected across much of western SD this afternoon and
  evening.

- Widespread freezing temperatures expected overnight.

- Above average temperatures return for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Thursday)
Issued at 1202 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Current upper air analysis shows upper trof axis draped across 
the Northern Plains. Attendant sfc front is pushing through the 
CWA with 3 hr pressure rises of 3-4 mb behind it. The pressure 
rises and cold air advection is supporting widespread gusty 
northwest winds, especially across the western SD plains. Stations
across western SD have begun to report gusts of 45-55 mph, these 
winds should continue through this afternoon into late evening 
before diminishing overnight as the front exits the region. While 
a few gusts up to 60 mph are possible, the majority of gusts 
should be around 45 to 55 mph.

CAA and clearing skies will result in widespread freezing/sub- 
freezing temps tonight into Friday for much of the area. Freeze 
Warning remains in effect for most of the forecast area tonight 
into tomorrow morning.

Upper ridging builds over the western CONUS by Friday into this 
weekend. Expecting above average highs this weekend into early 
next week with elevated fire wx conditions. Next chances for 
precip arrive later next week as another trof deepens across the 
western US, though it's still too far out to determine any 
specifics about precip chances or timing.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued At 503 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Strong winds
will start to diminish after sunset, until then widespread gusts
of 45kts are expected on the western SD plains. 

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Wind Advisory until 11 PM MDT this evening for SDZ001-002-
     012>014-026-030>032-041>043-072-073-077-078.
     Freeze Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM MDT Friday for 
     SDZ001-002-012>014-025>027-030>032-041>044-072>078.
     Wind Advisory until 4 AM CDT Friday for SDZ046-047-049.
WY...Freeze Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM MDT Friday for 
     WYZ054>056-058>060.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wong
AVIATION...Schweigert