FXUS65 KVEF 072101 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 201 PM PDT Tue Jul 7 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected over portions of northern Mohave County this afternoon, but otherwise, dry conditions with warming temperatures will continue through the week. * Monsoonal moisture begins increasing this weekend, resulting in increased chances for showers and thunderstorms early next week. && .DISCUSSION...Through next Monday. A seasonably hot day is underway across the region this afternoon, with mostly sunny skies for most of the area. An area of agitated cumulus has popped up over far northeastern Mohave County, where isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop later this afternoon. Very little rainfall is expected from this convection, though lightning strikes and gusty downburst winds could accompany the stronger showers and thunderstorms. This activity will drift east of the area prior to sunset, with dry conditions otherwise expected. As ridging continues building over the region, increasing thicknesses will allow temperatures to continue warming through the end of the week, topping out around 5 to 7 degrees above normal and resulting in widespread Moderate HeatRisk (Level 2 of 4) and pockets of localized Major HeatRisk (Level 3 of 4). This heat will be dangerous for anyone spending time outdoors without adequate hydration or access to shade and air conditioning, especially those who are vulnerable to heat- related illnesses. In addition to the heat and dry conditions, afternoon breezes are expected each day, which will maintain a heightened fire risk across much of southern Nevada, southeastern California, and northwestern Arizona. As the aforementioned ridge builds and settles over the Four Corners Region, prevailing southerly flow around its periphery will allow for an influx of monsoonal moisture into the area beginning this weekend. By Sunday, ensemble guidance indicates mean precipitable water values exceeding 1.00 inch along and south of I-15, with moisture continuing to work its way northward through the end of the forecast period and beyond. Fairly broadbrushed precipitation chances return to the area by next Monday, though fine-scale details regarding precise location and timing of potential thunderstorms will be refined in later forecasts. The main takeaway is that while hot temperatures look to stick around, cluster analyses, ensemble guidance, and climatology all lean toward a more traditional monsoon thunderstorm pattern becoming established beginning early next week. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Winds have largely been light out of the S to SW this morning, but expect variability in wind direction from SE-SSW through around 20z until a more consistent SSW direction sets up. Expect speeds below 08 kts for the next few hours, increasing through the afternoon. An isolated SE gust to 16 kts possible this morning, then sporadic S- SSW gusts to 20 kts this afternoon and evening. Gusts fall off after sunset. Typical daily wind pattern to continue the next 24-30 hours with a similar aviation forecast for Wednesday. Temperatures will increase above 100 degrees between 17 and 04Z, with a peak around 108 degrees. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Expect gusty south- southwest winds for the Las Vegas Valley and Colorado River Valley TAF sites this afternoon, with gust speeds between 20 and 25 kts. For KBIH, gusts will favor the south-southeast with similar gust speeds. Gusts will fall off after sunset. The exception is KDAG, where NW winds 08-10 kts become WSW after 21z with gusts peaking between 25 and 30 ktsand will gradually subside after 05Z. Normal daily wind patterns to continue into Wednesday at all sites. No operationally significant cloud cover. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION...Phillipson AVIATION...Moore For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter