FXUS65 KVEF 080422 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 922 PM PDT Tue Jul 7 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected over portions of northern Mohave County this afternoon, but otherwise, dry conditions with warming temperatures will continue through the week. * Monsoonal moisture begins increasing this weekend, resulting in increased chances for showers and thunderstorms early next week. && .DISCUSSION...Through next Monday. A seasonably hot day is underway across the region this afternoon, with mostly sunny skies for most of the area. An area of agitated cumulus has popped up over far northeastern Mohave County, where isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop later this afternoon. Very little rainfall is expected from this convection, though lightning strikes and gusty downburst winds could accompany the stronger showers and thunderstorms. This activity will drift east of the area prior to sunset, with dry conditions otherwise expected. As ridging continues building over the region, increasing thicknesses will allow temperatures to continue warming through the end of the week, topping out around 5 to 7 degrees above normal and resulting in widespread Moderate HeatRisk (Level 2 of 4) and pockets of localized Major HeatRisk (Level 3 of 4). This heat will be dangerous for anyone spending time outdoors without adequate hydration or access to shade and air conditioning, especially those who are vulnerable to heat- related illnesses. In addition to the heat and dry conditions, afternoon breezes are expected each day, which will maintain a heightened fire risk across much of southern Nevada, southeastern California, and northwestern Arizona. As the aforementioned ridge builds and settles over the Four Corners Region, prevailing southerly flow around its periphery will allow for an influx of monsoonal moisture into the area beginning this weekend. By Sunday, ensemble guidance indicates mean precipitable water values exceeding 1.00 inch along and south of I-15, with moisture continuing to work its way northward through the end of the forecast period and beyond. Fairly broadbrushed precipitation chances return to the area by next Monday, though fine-scale details regarding precise location and timing of potential thunderstorms will be refined in later forecasts. The main takeaway is that while hot temperatures look to stick around, cluster analyses, ensemble guidance, and climatology all lean toward a more traditional monsoon thunderstorm pattern becoming established beginning early next week. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Similar wind patterns to the past few days are expected through the upcoming TAF period. Light southwest winds tonight will become light and variable Wednesday morning. Winds around 18Z may vary 150 to 180 (true) as speeds pick up to around 8KT. Isolated gusts over 15KT are possible with these south to southeast winds. By 21Z, the winds become southwest and gusts more frequent, gusting over 20KT through the afternoon. Winds will diminish like most evenings as southwest wind at 8KT or less develop for the evening and overnight period. VFR skies persist. Temperatures will exceed 100 degrees between 18Z through 04Z. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 06Z Forecast Package..Other than at KDAG where west winds at 10-15KT will persist through the night, light winds under 10KT are expected across the region. On Wednesday, south to southwest winds will develop by the afternoon with speed around 10KT and gusts 15-25KT. Winds will diminish after sunset for much of the region, except KDAG where gusty west-southwest winds are expected to develop around 00Z. VFR skies expected through the period. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION...Phillipson AVIATION...Nickerson For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter