FXUS65 KVEF 090433
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
930 PM PDT Wed Jul 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Dry conditions and above normal temperatures will continue through 
  the end of the week.

* Monsoonal moisture begins increasing this weekend, resulting in
  increased chances for showers and thunderstorms early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today through Wednesday.

High pressure will gradually build into the area over the next few 
days from the west. The center of the high will push across Nevada 
on Friday night and then move near the Four Corners on Saturday 
which will begin to open the door to monsoonal moisture. More on 
that later. In the meantime, above normal temperatures will be the 
rule. We will be very close to or at 110 for high temperatures in 
Las Vegas through Saturday. We have not hit 110 yet this year and on 
average we reach that level about 10 times per year.

As the moisture builds into the region aloft, the chance of 
thunderstorms will also increase. With isolated thunderstorms as 
early as Sunday although instability, if any will be quite limited, 
and then more scattered coverage on Monday. The moisture increase 
will mainly be in the mid and upper levels initially and that will 
keep the main concerns with any thunderstorms being dry lightning 
and strong and gusty winds. Moisture will likely be with us for much 
of the week and any additional details with respect to thunderstorm 
activity will become better resolved over the next few days. The 
increased moisture will however, reduce our high temperatures by 
several degrees.
&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...SSW 
winds have remained elevated even after sunset in the 10-13 kt range 
with isolated higher gusts. Expect these conditions to persist for 
another hour or two before speeds finally drop to and below 10 kts 
for the rest of the night. Following a similar pattern on Thursday, 
winds shift to the SSE-S briefly mid-morning, then veer to the S-SSW 
during the afternoon with another round of gusts to 20-25KT expected 
thereafter. Hi-res guidance is picking up on a weak mid-upper 
disturbance moving through around 10/06z possibly resulting in a 
burst of stronger winds in the 06-11z timeframe. They have fairly 
consistent in showing this for a few runs, so have added gusts to 
18kts toward the end of the TAF period late Thursday night into 
early Friday. VFR conditions with clear skies through the period. 
Expect temperatures at or above 100 degrees 17z - 03z with a high of 
110 expected tomorrow. 


For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast 
California...For the 06Z Forecast Package... Gusts have dropped off 
after sunset at most sites with KDAG being the exception as strong 
westerly winds persist through around midnight with gusts to 25 kts.
Daily wind pattern expected again on Thursday with southerly 
afternoon wind gusts of 20-25 kts for most other locations while 
KDAG remains out of the WSW to WNW. Lower confidence at KBIH 
tomorrow as hi-res guidance continues to show northerly flow 
persisting well into the day with no switchover to a S direction. 
For now, keeping light northerly winds in the KBIH forecast through 
21z, then transitioning to westerly by 00z as guidance suggests. 
Confidence is lower overall in the KBIH TAF due to the deviation 
from the normal diurnal wind pattern. High confidence in the 
forecast for all other sites. VFR conditions with no operationally 
significant cloud cover will continue.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Czyzyk 
AVIATION...Moore

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