FXUS65 KVEF 150804 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 104 AM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Gusty north-northwesterly winds expected this afternoon through Friday with gusts 40 to 50 mph across portions of the region. * Precipitation chances return to the region Tuesday and Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION...Through Thursday. Satellite imagery early this morning showed a broad upper level trough draped across the Rockies. Meanwhile to the northwest, a shortwave was digging south on the backside of this main trough. These two pieces of energy are expected to interact to bring gusty north to northeast winds to the region today through Friday. No significant changes to previous forecast thinking. Widespread gusts over 40 MPH are likely over Death Valley, southeast California, and western Arizona as a 60-70KT jet sets up across the region. Continuing to see indications of downslope wind enhancement in valleys next to terrain, including areas like Pahrump and around the Hualapai Mountains. Impacts to valley roadways, including Interstate 40 east of the Hualapai Mountains in southern Mohave County and Highway 160 in Pahrump, due to strong crosswinds are possible. No changes were made to the Wind Advisories as they capture the highest chances for wind impacts as well as the strongest wind timing. Winds will diminish through the day Friday as the trough pulls away, and while wind impacts should end by midday as gusts drop below 40 MPH- continued breezy northeast to east winds gusting 25-35 MPH are expected through the afternoon. This downward trend will continue Friday night and Saturday, with light winds returning to the forecast Sunday onward. After a brief warm up to near normal today and Friday, temperatures drop a few degrees back to slightly below normal levels for the weekend. After dry conditions through at least the weekend, will need to watch how a deep West Coast trough interacts with moisture that may advect into the region from Hurricane Simon. At the moment, moisture does not look to be as high as what we saw with the remnants of Rachel, but what impacts we will see is uncertain as the GFS and ECMWF have very different ideas on IVT plume locations and how they interact with the incoming trough. No major changes to the precipitation forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday with widespread 30%- 40% chances that then linger into Thursday, and snow level around 9000ft. Confidence in these details remain low though as this system is far into the forecast period, will continue to monitor as things develop. With the incoming system and the potential for rain, temperatures will cool and remain below normal early next week. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Light and variable winds will shift to the north-northwest late tonight, with gusty northerly winds to 20-25KT returning by mid- morning. Winds then veer to the northeast by late morning, with gusts increasing increasing to 25-30KT, persisting through sunset. Gusts gradually diminish through the evening, with northerly winds around 10-12KT continuing thereafter through the end of the forecast period. VFR conditions and clear skies prevail. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Overnight, winds will remain northerly with some variability and speeds between 5-10KT. Thursday morning, gusty northerly to northeasterly winds resume areawide, with gusts to 25-30KT common thereafter, with the strongest winds gusting to 30-40KT expected along the Lower Colorado River Valley from KIFP to KEED. Northeasterly gusts will hold off across the western Mojave Desert/KDAG until early afternoon, with gusts there closer to 20KT. Gusty conditions persist thereafter, though gusts begin to diminish slowly after sunset. KBIH in the northern Owens Valley is the outlier, where light northerly winds will back to the southwest and to the southeast by late afternoon, when gusty up- alley winds to 20-25KT are expected to develop. VFR conditions and clear skies prevail. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION...Nickerson AVIATION...Phillipson For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter