FXUS65 KVEF 221716 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 1016 AM PDT Sat Aug 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Above normal temperatures continue through next week. * Isolated storm chances linger into early next week, with best chances in northwestern Arizona and the southern Great Basin. && .DISCUSSION...through Friday. Ensemble guidance keeps the ridge of high pressure centered generally over southern NM through the forecast period. Any "cooling" that would otherwise result from subtle height falls will largely be offset by increased vertical mixing thanks to the southwest flow aloft. As a result, temperatures remain fairly steady with just a subtle cooldown possible Monday and Tuesday as moisture tries to creep back into the southeastern half of the CWA. Latest forecast has highs 2-8 degrees above normal, with the greatest anomalies across the eastern half of the area (closer to the high). Overnight lows remain relatively oppressive across the Mojave Desert as values range from 80-92 degrees. This keeps major heatrisk in Death Valley, the Las Vegas Valley, the Colorado River Valley, and southern Mohave County through Sunday. After the subtle reprieve on Monday-Tuesday, major to extreme heatrisk looks to return to these locations. A shortwave moving into the PacNW will reshape the ridge, resulting in a transition from southerly to more southwesterly flow overhead. This will reduce moisture across most of the CWA and promote more isolated convective activity through the weekend. Best chances (10- 20%) across the southern Great Basin and northwestern AZ. An influx of moisture early next week may spur increased coverage across our southeastern areas, but uncertainty remains. From mid-week and beyond, moisture drops back down and stays at modest levels, at best promoting isolated storm chances in northwestern AZ. Given the limited moisture, main concerns with any convection will be gusty outflow winds and dry lightning. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Southeast winds around 8KT are expected into the early afternoon. Isolated gusts to 15KT are possible with the southeast winds. Around 21Z, winds will become south as gusts over 15KT become more frequent. Winds will diminish this evening around sunset with typical overnight wind patterns through Sunday morning. Similar winds to today are expected Sunday with as southeast winds in the morning become south with gusts to around 20KT in the afternoon. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will develop across the Southern Great Basin this afternoon but are expected to stay far away from the terminals and no local impacts are expected. Temperatures will exceed 100F through 04Z this evening, then again Sunday between 18Z and 04Z. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Increasing south to southeast winds are expected this afternoon in many locations, gusting 15-20KT at times. West to southwest winds will push into KDAG around 00Z and start gusting over 20KT. Winds will diminish around sunset and follow typical wind patterns overnight. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon across the Southern Great Basin as well as in the Sierra, will need to watch if anything develops close enough to KBIH that it would impact the airport but currently do not think this will occur. Any precipitation does develop will diminish this evening with a dry night expected. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ DISCUSSION...Woods AVIATION...Nickerson For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter