FXUS02 KWBC 091945 PMDEPD Extended Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 345 PM EDT Thu Jul 9 2026 Valid 12Z Sun Jul 12 2026 - 12Z Thu Jul 16 2026 ...Dangerous heat spreads from the Intermountain West to the northern Plains and Upper Midwest through next week... ...Overview... An anomalously strong upper-level ridge will expand and strengthen over the central U.S. next week, leading to a significant and dangerous heat wave across the Intermountain West, northern Plains, and Upper Midwest. A slow-moving frontal boundary will be the focus for multiple rounds of heavy rain and storms across the Southeast and Gulf Coast into midweek. Increasing monsoonal moisture will produce numerous showers and storms across portions of the Southwest and Four Corners through next week. ...Guidance/Predictability Assessment... The latest guidance remains in fairly good overall agreement with its depiction of the large scale pattern through the medium range period, featuring a broad upper ridge over the central U.S. and several waves moving over top the ridge leading to periodic troughing over the West and East Coasts. While confidence in the location and strength of the ridge remains high, confidence in the timing and placement of the faster smaller scale waves riding over top of the ridge is comparatively lower. A forecast utilizing a composite blend of available deterministic guidance with increasing weighting of ensemble means later in the period seemed like a useful strategy to capture the large scale features while minimizing the smaller scale differences of individual models all while preserving some continuity. ...Weather/Hazards Highlights... A strong and expansive ridge sprawling from the western U.S. to the central U.S. will lead to an extended period of dangerous heat for parts of the Intermountain West, northern Plains, and Upper Midwest through most of next week. Several days of well above normal and potentially record-breaking maximum and minimum temperatures will lead to widespread major to extreme HeatRisk. WPC continues to update Heat Key Messages for this event which can be found on our homepage. A cold front pushing through the Southeast will eventually stall out along the Gulf Coast and act as a focus for showers and thunderstorms from late this weekend through midweek. Storms will be capable of producing heavy rainfall that could lead to isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding. Meanwhile, a subtropical ridge will develop over the Southeast and Florida Peninsula heading into the latter part of next week and renew heat risk concerns for the region. Increasing southerly flow around the western periphery of the central U.S. ridge will draw monsoonal moisture into the southern Four Corners and Great Basin later this weekend and into early next week. This moisture will likely lead to the development of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms with the potential to produce heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding. Sensitive places such as burn scars, steep terrain, etc., would be the most vulnerable to any flooding concerns that may develop. Miller/Kebede Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC medium range hazards outlook chart at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids, quantitative precipitation forecast, excessive rainfall outlook, winter weather outlook probabilities, heat indices and Key Messages are at: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw $$