FXUS06 KWBC 081901 PMDMRD Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD 300 PM EDT Wed July 08 2026 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 14 - 18 2026 Today's numerical models predict a strong anomalous mid-level ridge over the Northern Plains. Above normal 500-hPa heights extend from this ridge to cover most of the Contiguous United States (CONUS). Weak troughs are forecast on either side of this ridge, over the Northeast, and off the Pacific Northwest coast, respectively. Cyclonic flow and below normal 500-hPa heights are forecast across much of Alaska, associated with anomalous troughs predicted near Southeast Alaska and over the western Mainland, respectively. Near to modestly above normal mid-level heights are forecast across Hawaii. Above normal temperatures are favored across most of the CONUS, due to expansive ridging. Confidence is very high (greater than 80 percent chance) for above normal temperatures across much of the Northern High Plains and adjacent areas of the Rockies, near the center of the ridge. Near to below normal temperatures are favored for the Northeast and adjacent areas of the northern Mid-Atlantic and eastern Great Lakes, due to a predicted trough. Chances of above normal temperatures are reduced for coastal areas of the Pacific Northwest and Northern California, due to predicted onshore low-level flow. Near normal temperatures are favored across parts of the southern High Plains and adjacent areas of the Southwest, as clouds and precipitation may keep maximum temperatures down. Below normal temperatures are favored for much of Alaska, due to predicted anomalous troughing. Above normal temperatures are likely across Hawaii, due largely to observed above normal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the adjacent Pacific. Subtropical ridging is forecast to evolve into a more favorable position and orientation for enhanced monsoonal moisture advection. As such, above normal precipitation is favored across the Southwest and adjacent areas of the Great Basin, with probabilities exceeding 50 percent across parts of southern Arizona. Above normal precipitation is also favored across much of the remainder of the southern tier of the CONUS from the Southern Plains to the Southeast, consistent with teleconnections from predicted anomalous ridges over the Northern Plains and over the northeastern Atlantic. However, a modest tilt toward below normal precipitation is indicated for the southern tip of Florida, as a frontal boundary stalls to its north. Below normal precipitation is favored for the northern half of the Mississippi Valley, the Northern and Central Great Plains, and the Great Lakes, associated with the expansive ridge centered over the Northern Plains. Above normal precipitation is favored for much of Alaska, associated with predicted mean cyclonic flow. A tilt toward above normal precipitation is indicated for Hawaii, consistent with raw model output from the ECMWF, Canadian, and GEFS ensembles. The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 15% of Today's 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 55% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, and 30% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Above Average, 4 out of 5, due to good model agreement on an amplified mid-level pattern. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 16 - 22 2026 During the week-2 period, expansive ridging continues to dominate the central CONUS with positive height anomalies peaking over the northern High Plains. The ridge axis extends to the Southeast or Gulf Coast during the early portion of week-2 before retreating to the west-central CONUS late. The center of the subtropical ridge is generally expected to remain in a favorable position for an enhanced monsoon throughout much of the period. Cyclonic flow associated with a trough is forecast to persist across the Northeast, with the trough gradually weakening as the period progresses. Weak troughing is also favored to persist during the beginning of week-2 just offshore of the Pacific Northwest, followed by height rises associated with a transition to zonal flow. Persistent troughing is forecast over western Mainland Alaska, particularly during the first half of the period. Near to modestly above normal mid-level heights are forecast across Hawaii. Above normal temperatures are favored to persist across much of the CONUS due to a continuation of expansive ridging. Confidence is high (greater than 70 percent chance) for above normal temperatures across the northern High Plains, where anomalous ridging is forecast to be most persistent. Confidence is lower (generally under a 40 percent chance) for above normal temperatures across much of the Southwest and Southern Plains, due to potential increased cloud cover and precipitation. Near normal temperatures are favored for much of the northeastern quadrant of the CONUS, associated with a weakening trough. Below normal temperatures are favored across most of southern and western Alaska, underneath predicted cyclonic flow. Above normal temperatures are likely across Hawaii, due largely to observed above normal SSTs in the adjacent Pacific. Enhanced monsoonal moisture advection is forecast to persist during week-2, leading to increased probabilities of above normal precipitation across the Southwest and Great Basin. Elevated chances of above normal precipitation extend across the Southern Plains, Gulf Coast, Southeast, and much of the southern Mid-Atlantic, consistent with teleconnections from anomalous ridges over the northern High Plains and northeastern Atlantic, respectively. Below normal precipitation is more likely across the north-central CONUS eastward to Great Lakes, near and downstream of the predicted ridge axis over the northern High Plains. An active pattern is favored to continue across much of Alaska, due to persistent troughing. A tilt toward above normal precipitation is indicated for Hawaii, consistent with raw model output from the ECMWF, Canadian, and GEFS ensembles. The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 15% of Today's 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 55% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, and 30% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Average, 3 out of 5, good model agreement between the ECMWF and Canadian ensemble means, offset by disagreements with the GEFS ensemble mean and the potential for pattern de-amplication late. FORECASTER: Scott H Notes: The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as that in the tables: A-above N-near normal B-below The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange, "A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green, "A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal (i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons. In such cases a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no precipitation. The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as reference in the climate outlooks. The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on July 16. Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates: 20180713 - 20050715 - 20140619 - 19980626 - 20080719 Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates: 20140618 - 19980625 - 20180714 - 20160708 - 20080720 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Jul 14 - 18 2026 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A N NEVADA A A W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A N NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A N N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS N A MINNESOTA A B IOWA A B MISSOURI A N ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A B ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A B INDIANA A B OHIO A B KENTUCKY A N TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK N N VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE B A MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N PENN N N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA N N MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA N N N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B A AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Jul 16 - 22 2026 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A MINNESOTA A B IOWA A B MISSOURI A N ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A B ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A B INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK N B VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE N N MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N PENN N N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA N N MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N A N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE N A AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN N A AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMALA - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$