FXUS06 KWBC 091902 PMDMRD Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD 300 PM EDT Thu July 09 2026 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 15 - 19 2026 Today's numerical models predict a strong anomalous mid-level ridge over the Northern High Plains. Above normal 500-hPa heights extend from this ridge to cover most of the Contiguous United States (CONUS). The magnitude of the ridge has decreased across the Northern Plains relative to yesterday. Conversely, stronger but transient ridging is forecast across the Southeast. Weak troughs are forecast on either side of the Northern Plains ridge, over the Northeast, and off the Pacific Northwest coast, respectively. Cyclonic flow and below normal 500-hPa heights are forecast across much of Alaska, associated with an anomalous trough predicted near western Mainland. This trough has trended stronger today. Near to modestly above normal mid-level heights are forecast across Hawaii. Above normal temperatures are favored across most of the CONUS, due to expansive ridging. Confidence is high (greater than 70 percent chance) for above normal temperatures across much of the Northern High Plains, near the center of the ridge. Near to below normal temperatures are favored for parts of the Northeast. Near normal temperatures are favored across parts of the southern High Plains and adjacent areas of the Southwest, as clouds and precipitation may keep maximum temperatures down. Below normal temperatures are favored for much of Alaska, due to predicted anomalous troughing. Above normal temperatures are likely across Hawaii, due largely to observed above normal sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the adjacent Pacific. Subtropical ridging is forecast to evolve into a more favorable position and orientation for enhanced monsoonal moisture advection. As such, above normal precipitation is favored across the Southwest and adjacent areas of the Great Basin, with probabilities exceeding 50 percent across parts of southern Arizona. Above normal precipitation is also favored across much of the the Southern Plains to the Gulf Coast consistent with teleconnections from predicted anomalous ridges over the Northern Plains and over the northeastern Atlantic. However, confidence for above normal precipitation is reduced across the Southeast, as models have trended stronger with a ridge during early to middle parts of the period. Below normal precipitation is favored for the northern half of the Mississippi Valley, the Northern and Central Great Plains, and adjacent areas of the western the Great Lakes, associated with the expansive ridge centered over the Northern Plains. Above normal precipitation is favored for most of Alaska, associated with predicted mean cyclonic flow. A tilt toward above normal precipitation is indicated for Hawaii, consistent with raw model output from the ECMWF, Canadian, and GEFS ensembles. The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 15% of Today's 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 55% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, and 30% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Average, 3 out of 5, due to good agreement on large scale ridging over the CONUS and troughing over Alaska, offset by inconsistencies on the strength and orientation of these features. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR JUL 17 - 23 2026 During the week-2 period, expansive ridging over the CONUS migrates to the Northern High Plains as initial ridging across the Southeast weakens. The center of the subtropical ridge is generally expected to remain in a favorable position for an enhanced monsoon during much of the period. Cyclonic flow associated with a trough is forecast to persist across the Northeast, with the trough gradually weakening as the period progresses. Weak troughing is also favored to persist during the beginning of week-2 just offshore of the Pacific Northwest, followed by height rises associated with a transition to zonal flow. Persistent troughing is forecast over western Mainland Alaska, particularly during the first half of the period. Near to modestly above normal mid-level heights are forecast across Hawaii. Above normal temperatures are favored to persist across much of the CONUS due to a continuation of expansive ridging. Confidence is high (greater than 60 percent chance) for above normal temperatures across the northern High Plains, Northern Rockies, the western Great Basin, and into Southern California, in close proximity to the ridge axis over the interior West.. Confidence is lower (generally under a 40 percent chance) for above normal temperatures across much of the Southwest and Southern Plains, due to potential increased cloud cover and precipitation. Near normal temperatures are favored for parts of the Northeast, associated with a weakening trough. Below normal temperatures are favored across most of southern and western Alaska, underneath predicted cyclonic flow. Above normal temperatures are likely across Hawaii, due largely to observed above normal SSTs in the adjacent Pacific. Enhanced monsoonal moisture advection is forecast to persist during week-2, leading to increased probabilities of above normal precipitation across the Southwest and Great Basin. Elevated chances of above normal precipitation extend across much of the Southern Plains, consistent with teleconnections from anomalous ridges over the northern High Plains. A slight tilt toward above normal precipitation is indicated across the eastern Carolinas, as early ridging over the Southeast weakens. Below normal precipitation is more likely across the north-central CONUS, near and downstream of the predicted ridge axis over the northern High Plains. A slight tilt toward above normal precipitation is indicated across much of New England, associated with cyclonic mid-level flow. An active pattern is favored to continue across much of Alaska, due to persistent troughing. A tilt toward above normal precipitation is indicated for Hawaii, consistent with raw model output from the ECMWF, Canadian, and GEFS ensembles. The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 15% of Today's 6z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 55% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, and 30% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Average, 3 out of 5, good model agreement between the ECMWF and Canadian ensemble means, offset by disagreements with the GEFS ensemble mean and the potential for pattern de-amplication. FORECASTER: Scott H Notes: The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as that in the tables: A-above N-near normal B-below The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange, "A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green, "A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal (i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons. In such cases a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no precipitation.The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as reference in the climate outlooks. The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on July 16. Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates: 20050715 - 20180714 - 20160708 - 20200723 - 19980625 Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates: 20140618 - 20180714 - 19980625 - 20050715 - 20160708 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Jul 15 - 19 2026 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A N NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A N N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS N A MINNESOTA A B IOWA A B MISSOURI A B ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A B ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A N INDIANA A B OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A N VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE N N MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE B A AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Jul 17 - 23 2026 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N SRN CALIF A A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A N NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS N A MINNESOTA A B IOWA A B MISSOURI A N ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A B ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A N INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A N TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A N VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N A MAINE N A MASS N A CONN A N RHODE IS A A PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A N MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A N N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A N FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE B A AK ALEUTIAN B A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$