FXUS06 KWBC 151902 PMDMRD Prognostic Discussion for 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park, MD 300 PM EDT Thu October 15 2026 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 21 - 25 2026 There is good agreement in the dynamical models regarding the 500-hPa pattern across North America during the 6-10 day period. The 0z ECMWF, GEFS, and Canadian ensembles depict anomalous mid-level ridging across the eastern U.S. resulting in a +150 meter positive height anomaly center over Ontario in the manual height blend, and above-normal heights across the CONUS east of the Rockies. A transient shortwave trough is forecast over the western CONUS, with this feature lifting out across the Great Plains later in the period leading to near- to below-normal heights for much of the Southwest and Great Basin. A transitional pattern is predicted over Alaska, with troughing initially favored across much of Mainland and Southeast Alaska, followed by increasing heights and more ridging across eastern Alaska by the end of the period, and more troughing over the Bering Sea and the Aleutians. This leads to near-normal heights over much of the state in the manual blend for the period as a whole. Near-normal heights are also forecast for Hawaii. Above-normal temperatures are strongly favored across nearly all of the CONUS east of the Rockies, with probabilities exceeding 80 percent over parts of the Upper Midwest. Conversely, below-normal temperature odds are elevated across much of the Southwest and Great Basin underneath troughing and with support from the uncalibrated 0z ECMWF and GEFS ensembles and analogs. A transient mid-level pattern favors increased chances of near-normal temperatures across most of Mainland Alaska and the Aleutians, with slightly higher chances for above-normal temperatures over eastern Mainland and Southeast Alaska tied to an increase in ridging later in the period. Above-normal temperature probabilities are increased over Hawaii, consistent with the reforecast consolidation. The primary feature in terms of enhanced precipitation is predicted to be surface low pressure developing across the Southwest and tracking across the Rockies. Additional moisture from Hurricane Trudy across the tropical East Pacific may also be indirectly entrained into this system. Given the typically lower precipitation climatologies in this region, high probabilities for above-normal precipitation are posted across much of the Interior West into the Great Plains, and diminishing in magnitude farther east toward the Mississippi Valley. Farther to the east, under the influence of ridging and surface high pressure, probabilities for below-normal precipitation are increased across the Northeast, Ohio Valley, and extending south to the Gulf Coast. These higher probabilities are also supported by the analogs, reforecast and uncalibrated ECMWF, and low 6-10 day precipitation totals in the 0z ECMWF, GEFS, and Canadian ensembles. Elevated chances for above-normal precipitation are favored for most of Alaska tied to increased troughing early in the period and an active surface low track across the Bering Sea and Gulf of Alaska. Above-normal precipitation is forecast for Hawaii. The official 6-10 day 500-hPa height blend consists of 30% of Today's 0z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, 40% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8, and 30% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 8 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: Above average, 4 out 5, due to very good model agreement regarding the amplification of mid-level features across the CONUS, offset by a more transient pattern over the North Pacific. 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 23 - 29 2026 During week-2, the mid-level pattern across North America becomes more uncertain due in part to the breakdown of the strong ridging over the eastern U.S., which is likely to peak around the start of the period. A zonal pattern is more likely across much of the CONUS by the middle of week-2, but large ensemble spread in the models indicates that individual shortwave features may ultimately influence the pattern. The manual 500-hPa height blend continues to depict above-normal heights from the Great Plains to the East Coast but are weaker in magnitude compared to the 6-10 day period. The 0z GEFS hints at more longwave troughing in the East toward the end of the period, but this is not as evident in the ECMWF or Canadian ensembles which persist near- to above-normal heights over the region. Troughing over the Southwest is forecast to lift out over the Great Plains early in the period, although additional troughing or potential for the development of a cut-off mid-level low later in the period favors near-normal heights in the manual blend across the southwestern quadrant of the CONUS. Ridging and associated positive height anomalies are forecast across the northeastern Pacific and spreading throughout much of Alaska, with weakening troughing upstream over the Bering Sea. Near-normal heights remain forecast for Hawaii. Increased chances of above-normal temperatures are forecast to persist east of the Rockies, although the magnitude of the positive temperature anomalies is forecast to decrease with time as the mid-level ridge over the central and eastern CONUS weakens. Weak probabilities of below-normal temperatures are highlighted over the Interior West given troughing early in the period, as well as some potential for additional troughing developing later in the period. Consideration was also given to potential wet conditions and higher elevation snow cover across the Rockies. Above-normal temperature chances are slightly increased across northwestern Washington and coastal southern California into extreme southern Arizona. A warming trend is forecast across much of Alaska tied to building positive mid-level height anomalies, with above-normal temperatures favored across most of the state, excluding portions of the far northwestern Mainland where near-normal temperatures are more likely. Above normal temperatures remain forecast for Hawaii, consistent with above-normal sea surface temperatures in the area. Above-normal precipitation chances are increased across much of the Interior West and central CONUS tied to surface low pressure early in the period. In the wake of this system, below-normal precipitation chances are increased across the West Coast, although any additional troughing that develops supports elevated chances of above-normal precipitation remaining over the Southwest and Four Corners. Analogs and uncalibrated 0z ECMWF guidance continue to support increased chances for below-normal precipitation across the East underneath enhanced ridging early in the period. Above-normal precipitation is favored for much of Alaska consistent with an active storm track early in the period, with some drying out late as troughing over the Bering Sea weakens. Above normal precipitation remains favored in Hawaii. The official 8-14 day 500-hPa height blend consists of: 25% of Today's 0z GFS Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, 40% of Today's 0z European Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11, and 35% of Today's 0z Canadian Ensemble Mean centered on Day 11 FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: Below average, 2 out of 5, Higher confidence early in the period is offset by decreasing confidence in the mid-level height pattern with time. FORECASTER: Thomas Collow Notes: The notation for the categorical forecast indicated on the maps is the same as that in the tables: A-above N-near normal B-below The temperature map shows regions with > 33% chance of being warmer (orange, "A"), colder (blue, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. The precipitation map shows regions with > 33% chance of being wetter (green, "A"), drier (tan, "B"), or close to (gray, "N") normal. Labels on the shaded lines give the probability (> 33%) of the more likely category (B or A). Probability of N is always < 40%. In the southwest and other climatologically dry regions - there will be a greater than 33.3% chance of no precipitation and occasionally even a normal (i.e. Median) value of zero - especially during the dry seasons. In such cases a forecast of near normal is effectively a forecast of little or no precipitation. The climate prediction center uses 1991-2020 base period means as reference in the climate outlooks. The next set of long-lead monthly and seasonal outlooks will be released on November 19. Analogs to the 5 day mean observed pattern centered 3 days ago (D-3) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 5 day periods centered on the following dates: 20061006 - 20001024 - 20151022 - 20251013 - 20131011 Analogs to the 7 day mean observed pattern centered 4 days ago (D-4) for the region from 20N to 70N latitude and 175E to 60W longitude include the 7 day periods centered on the following dates: 20061006 - 20050925 - 19891001 - 20251005 - 20251012 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Oct 21 - 25 2026 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N N OREGON B N NRN CALIF B A SRN CALIF B A IDAHO N A NEVADA B A W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A UTAH N A ARIZONA B A COLORADO A A NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A B INDIANA A B OHIO A B KENTUCKY A B TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK A B VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A B MAINE N B MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS A B PENN A B NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A B MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A B N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N N AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN N A AK S INT N A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE Outlook for Oct 23 - 29 2026 STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN WASHINGTON N B OREGON B B NRN CALIF N B SRN CALIF A N IDAHO B A NEVADA B A W MONTANA N A E MONTANA N A WYOMING N A UTAH B A ARIZONA N A COLORADO N A NEW MEXICO N A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN AN INDIANA A N OHIO A B KENTUCKY A B TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK A B VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A B MAINE A B MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N PENN A B NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A B MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A B N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A A AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A LEGEND TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN B - BELOW B - BELOW THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS PMDMRD. $$