FXUS24 KWNC 091300
PMDENS
El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion
NWS Climate Prediction Center College Park MD
900 AM EDT Thu 09 Jul 2026

NOTE: figures mentioned in the discussion are available on
the internet at HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

ENSO Alert System Status: El Nino Advisory

Synopsis: El Nino continues and will strengthen through the end
of the year, with a 97percent chance it will persist through
early spring 2027.

El Nino strengthened over the past month, with a large area of
sea surface temperature anomalies in excess of +1.0degC across
the central and eastern equatorial Pacific (Fig. 1). The latest
weekly Nino-3.4 index value was +1.2degC, with the westernmost
(Nino-4) and easternmost (Nino-1+2) indices at +0.5degC and
+2.7degC, respectively (Fig. 2). The equatorial subsurface
temperature index (average from 180deg-100degW) increased
(Fig. 3), as a recent downwelling Kelvin wave deepened the
thermocline and raised temperatures in the eastern Pacific
(Fig. 4). Low-level westerly wind anomalies and upper-level
easterly wind anomalies were observed over the western and
central equatorial Pacific. Convection was enhanced over the
central and east-central equatorial Pacific and was suppressed
over Indonesia (Fig. 5). The traditional and equatorial Southern
Oscillation indices were significantly negative. Collectively,
the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected a strengthening
El Nino.

The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) average,
including the NCEP CFSv2 (Fig. 6), forecasts El Nino to
intensify through 2026. Alongside model forecasts, a strong
coupling of the atmospheric and oceanic circulation across the
Pacific contributes to very high confidence that El Nino will
continue through early 2027 (Fig. 7). There is an 81percent
chance of a very strong El Nino during October-December
(Fig. 8) that would rank among the largest El Nino events in
the historical record going back to 1950. Even the strongest
El Nino events do not lead to the typical impact everywhere,
but stronger events can more significantly tilt the odds in
favor of expected outcomes (see CPC outlooks for probabilities
of seasonal anomalies). In summary, El Nino continues and will
strengthen through the end of the year, with a 97percent chance
it will last through early spring 2027.

This discussion is a consolidated effort of the National Oceanic
and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NOAA's National Weather
Service, and their funded institutions. Oceanic and atmospheric
conditions are updated weekly on the Climate Prediction
Center website (El Nino/La Nina Current Conditions and Expert
Discussions). A probabilistic strength forecast is available
here. The next ENSO Diagnostics Discussion is scheduled for
13 August 2026. To receive an e-mail notification when the
monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussions are released, please send
an e-mail message to: ncep.list.enso-update@noaa.gov.



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