AWUS01 KWNH 072205
FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-ALZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-080215-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0641
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
604 PM EDT Tue Jul 07 2026

Areas affected...southern KY into TN and the mid-MS Valley

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 072202Z - 080215Z

SUMMARY...Ongoing thunderstorms containing slow movement will
maintain a threat for flash flooding through 02Z from KY into TN
and portions of the mid-MS Valley. Peak hourly rainfall of 2-3
inches is expected, but storm coverage and the threat for flash
flooding is expected to wane after sunset.

DISCUSSION...At 2145Z, scattered thunderstorms persisted across
portions of central and southern KY into a good portion of TN. A
number of outflow boundaries were observed through visible
satellite and radar imagery with a mean movement toward the south,
helping ignite new rounds of convection. SPC mesoanalysis data
from 21Z indicated roughly 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE remained over KY
to TN and the MS Valley with PWs of 1.8 to 2.1 inches.

Given a lack of shear, storms were fairly short-lived over any
given location but occasional merging and repeating along with the
efficient environment has supported hourly rainfall over 2 inches
in a few locations. Thunderstorms will continue over the next few
hours with a similar behavior as observed over the afternoon with
somewhat chaotic motions. However, an expected lowering in
coverage should occur beyond sunset with increasing low level
inhibition. Until then, expect a continued threat for isolated to
widely scattered areas of flash flooding with peak hourly rainfall
in excess of 2 inches.

Otto

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...HUN...JKL...LMK...LZK...MEG...MRX...OHX...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON   37668429 37418326 37028315 36428395 35748457 
            35388527 35008635 34928803 34878976 34979055 
            35269097 36179078 36929037 37348962 37508859 
            37618593