AWUS01 KWNH 080417
FFGMPD
WIZ000-MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-081011-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0644...Corrected
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1216 AM EDT Wed Jul 08 2026

Corrected for position of upper level shortwave

Areas affected...portions of eastern SD, central MN, & western WI

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 080411Z - 081011Z

Summary...A longer convective band is forming in and near central
MN at the present time.  Hourly rain amounts to 3" and local
totals to 6" are possible, which could lead to scattered instances
of flash flooding.

Discussion...An east-west band of showers and thunderstorms
extends from northeast SD across central MN towards northwest WI
at the present time, to the north of a frontal zone with a wave
across southwest MN and another wave across south-central SD.  A
shortwave just north of northeast ND is helping aid diffluence
aloft.  Confluence at 850 hPa is noted near the band. 
Precipitable water values are 1.5-2".  Effective bulk shear is
35-65 kts.  A large MU CAPE pool of 2000-3500 J/kg lies south of
the band, aiding updrafts.

The 00z HREF may be a hair to the north, but it's not far off
where the thunderstorms are presently and was used as a starting
point for the MPD domain, with some input from recent radar
reflectivity to correct the pattern southward.  A combination of
cell training and mesocyclone formation appears to be the main
cause of heavy rainfall/flash flooding from this system, which is
expected to continue past 10z.  Due to recent rains across
portions of this region, flash flood guidance is modest.  Hourly
rain amounts up to 3" and local amounts to 6" are possible in this
regime, which is generally reflected by the 12z REFS and 00z HREF
guidance.  This degree of rainfall could cause scattered instances
of flash flooding.

Roth

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...ARX...BIS...DLH...FGF...FSD...GRB...MPX...

ATTN...RFC...KRF...MSR...NWC...

LAT...LON   46439388 45999013 44999016 44489389 44019671 
            44879995 45690021 46259778