AWUS01 KWNH 200415
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-200815-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0195
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1214 AM EDT Wed May 20 2026

Areas affected...southwestern to central MS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 200413Z - 200815Z

Summary...Brief training of heavy rain may allow for localized
hourly rainfall of 2 to 3+ inches from southwestern to central MS
over the next 2-4 hours. Localized flash flooding may result,
especially if overlap occurs within urban centers along I-55 from
Jackson to McComb.

Discussion...04Z radar imagery and surface observations showed a
NNE to SSW oriented line of thunderstorms moving east from western
MS along an outflow boundary. The environment was quite moist and
unstable with PWs between 1.8 and 2.1 inches along with 500-1500
J/kg MLCAPE as seen in the 00Z JAN sounding and 03Z SPC
mesoanalysis. The outflow boundary is expected to continue to
slowly but steadily move east over the next couple of hours but
recent development out ahead of the outflow in southwestern MS
near the LA border may support localized higher hourly rainfall
values aided by short term training. Where training sets up, the
environment supports the potential for 2 to 3+ inches of rain in
an hour and totals near 4 inches. Given the fairly high flash
flood guidance, this threat should likely be more urban in nature
or within other poorly draining locations.

Otto

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...NWC...

LAT...LON   33398994 33018939 31359022 30949071 31019132 
            31449136 32039098 32769069