FXXX10 KWNP 161231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Oct 16 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 16-Oct 18 2026 is 3.33 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 16-Oct 18 2026

             Oct 16       Oct 17       Oct 18
00-03UT       3.33         1.67         1.67         
03-06UT       2.00         1.67         1.67         
06-09UT       1.67         1.33         1.33         
09-12UT       2.33         1.33         1.33         
12-15UT       1.67         1.33         1.33         
15-18UT       2.00         1.33         1.33         
18-21UT       2.00         1.33         1.33         
21-00UT       2.67         1.67         1.67         

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 16-Oct 18 2026

              Oct 16  Oct 17  Oct 18
S1 or greater   10%     10%     10%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 16-Oct 18 2026

              Oct 16        Oct 17        Oct 18
R1-R2           25%           25%           25%
R3 or greater   10%           10%           10%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.