FXXX10 KWNP 231231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2026 Aug 23 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 23-Aug 25 2026 is 2.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 23-Aug 25 2026

             Aug 23       Aug 24       Aug 25
00-03UT       0.67         1.67         1.67     
03-06UT       2.00         1.67         1.67     
06-09UT       1.67         1.67         1.33     
09-12UT       2.00         1.33         1.33     
12-15UT       1.33         0.67         1.33     
15-18UT       1.33         1.33         1.33     
18-21UT       1.67         1.67         1.67     
21-00UT       1.67         1.67         1.33     

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 23-Aug 25 2026

              Aug 23  Aug 24  Aug 25
S1 or greater   25%     10%     10%

Rationale: There is a chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to
reach S1 (Minor) levels on 23 Aug, and a slight chance on 24-25 Aug.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 23-Aug 25 2026

              Aug 23        Aug 24        Aug 25
R1-R2           45%           45%           45%
R3 or greater   10%           10%           10%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts,
and a slight chance for an R3 (Strong) or greater event, over 23-25 Aug.