FXXX12 KWNP 080031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Jul 08 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
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#             Forecast Discussion
#
Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2026 Jul 08 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity increased to moderate levels with an impulsive M4.0/1B
flare at 07/1419 UTC from Region 4482 (S09E56, Eki/beta-gamma).
Accompanying Type II (593 km/s) and Type IV radio emissions were
observed at 1420 and 1435 UTC, respectively. SUVI 284 imagery indicates
possible ejecta, but updated coronagraph imagery is needed for further
analysis.

Region 4482 showed the most significant development with new spot growth
in its intermediate sections, consolidation within its leading group,
and an overall expansion in spatial extent and complexity. The other
regions were stable and quiet.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to remain at low to moderate levels through 10
July. The probability of M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) or greater
flaring decreases on 08 Jul as old Regions 4478 (S05, L=83) and 4479
continue their transit beyond the western limb.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels, with a peak flux of 2,940 pfu observed at 07/1130 UTC. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at
background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at moderate
to high levels 08-10 July. No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation
storms are expected.


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters remained at nominal levels. Solar wind speeds
averaged near 425 km/s. Total field was between 5 - 8 nT and Bz was at
+/- 5 nT. Phi was positive.

.Forecast...
Nominal conditions are expected through 09 July. Enhancements are likely
on 10 July due to the arrival of a CIR ahead of a negative polarity CH
HSS.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
Geomagnetic field activity was quiet.

.Forecast...
Geomagnetic conditions are expected to remain mostly quiet through 08
July. Conditions are anticipated to increase to unsettled and
active levels on 09-10 July under the onset of -CH HSS influences, with
a slight chance for isolated periods of G1 (Minor) storming possible.