FXXX12 KWNP 090031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Jul 09 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
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#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached moderate levels with an M1.5/1N flare at 08/1756
UTC from Region 4482 (S09E28, Eki/beta-gamma).

There are currently five numbered regions on the visible disk. Region
4482 demonstrated continued growth and developed a delta spot within its
trailing spot group. Region 4485 (S10W28, Dso/beta-gamma) displayed new
flux emergence. Regions 4486 (S18W57, Axx/alpha) and 4487 (N09E26,
Axx/alpha) were newly numbered during the period. Region 4481 (N14W06,
Axx/alpha) was stable and remained an unremarkable unipolar group.

No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to remain at low levels through 11 July, with
a high chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares and a slight
chance for X-class (R3/Strong and greater) events. This flare
probability is almost entirely due to the complexity and potential of
Region 4482.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit dropped
from high to moderate levels around 08/0100 UTC, with a peak flux of
5,230 pfu observed at 07/1710 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux
at geosynchronous orbit remained at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at low to
moderate levels through 09 July, with a return to high levels
anticipated for 10-11 July under high-speed stream influences. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux is anticipated to remain at background
levels through 11 July.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected near ambient background conditions.
Total field strength was between 6 and 10 nT. The Bz component reached a
maximum southward deflection of -8 nT. Solar wind speeds were generally
near 400 km/s. The phi angle was predominantly in the positive sector.

.Forecast...
Enhancements are anticipated to begin on 09 July and continue through
11 July with the arrival of a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) ahead
of a negative polarity coronal hole high-speed stream (-CH HSS).

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

.Forecast...
Geomagnetic conditions are anticipated to reach unsettled and active
levels on 09-11 July under the onset of -CH HSS influences, with a
slight chance for isolated periods of G1 (Minor) storming.