FXXX12 KWNP 161231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2026 Oct 16 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
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#             Forecast Discussion
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Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained at low levels. The largest flare of the period
was an impulsive C4.9 observed at 15/1555 UTC from Region 4551 (S14W12,
Ekc/beta-gamma-delta). This region produced the majority of X-ray flares
observed this period. Region 4551 exhibited several areas of new flux
emergence surrounding its leader spot. Region 4557 (N07E23, Dsi/beta)
showed growth over the second half of the period and produced a few weak
C-class flares. Regions 4554 (N07, L=78), 4556 (N03, L=66), and 4558
(S08, L=145) all decayed to plage this period. The remaining Region 4555
(S08W63, Cro/beta) was stable.

No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at low levels through 18 Oct, with a
slight chance (20%) for M-class flares (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) due
mainly to the flare potential of Region 4551.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels,
and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels on 16-18 Oct. There is a slight chance for an S1 (Minor)
solar radiation storm through 18 Oct due to the flare potential of
Region 4551.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were slightly elevated under diminishing HSS
activity. Total field (Bt) maintained an average of 5 nT, with a
variable Bz (north-south) component that ranged from a brief southward
deflection of -5 nT early in the period. Solar wind speeds gradually
decreased from about 510 km/s to end the period at about 420 km/s. Phi
was in a mostly negative sector.

.Forecast...
Solar wind conditions are anticipated to see an occasional isolated
interval of disturbed/elevated conditions on 16 Oct as influences from a
negative polarity CH HSS slowly wane, with a return to
near-background/ambient levels on 17-18 Oct.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.

.Forecast...
Unsettled conditions are expected to persist through 16 Oct, as
influences from the negative polarity CH HSS wane. 17 Oct is anticipated
to return to quiet geomagnetic conditions, persisting through 18 Oct.