ACUS02 KWNS 081704
SWODY2
SPC AC 081701

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1201 PM CDT Wed Jul 08 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE PARTS
OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...THE LOWER MO AND OH
VALLEYS...AND THE MID-ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms posing a risk for strong gusts and/or large
hail are possible across portions of the northern and central
Plains, the Lower Missouri to Lower Ohio Valleys, and across the
Mid-Atlantic on Thursday afternoon and evening.

...Lower MO to Lower OH Valleys...

One or more MCVs are forecast to be located over the Lower MO/Mid-MS
Valley vicinity Thursday morning. As these features migrate eastward
through the day, locally enhanced vertical shear will combine with a
very moist and strongly unstable airmass to provide support for
widely scattered organized severe convection. Thunderstorm clusters
will mainly pose a risk for damaging winds and isolated hail. An
initial cluster may develop across eastern MO/southern IL and shift
east along the Lower OH Valley. Some guidance suggests a second
cluster may develop across southern MO and move east/southeast
across the Mid-South vicinity and eventually into TN overnight. An
increasing southerly low-level jet during the evening could maintain
some severe risk even into the nighttime hours across the Mid-South
into TN and severe probabilities have been expanded some across this
area to reflect this potential. Otherwise, the forecast remains
largely similar to the previous Day 2 outlook.

...Northern/Central Plains...

Several shortwave impulses are forecast to migrate across the region
within northwesterly flow aloft. At the surface, a pocket of richer
boundary layer moisture is forecast across the central Plains, with
more modest moisture expected northward into the Dakotas. Strong
heating along a surface trough and steep midlevel lapse rates will
support pockets of 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE. Initial supercell
structures are possible across the High Plains and will pose a risk
of large hail and damaging gusts. With time, sufficient
clustering/outflow consolidation is expected and one or more linear
segments will evolve into portions of western KS/NE. Severe gust
potential will increase as this occurs during the evening hours. 

Further north into North Dakota, a separate area of supercell
potential is expected as a weak surface low moves east along the
international border near eastern MT/western ND. Isolated supercells
developing ahead of an approaching surface front will pose a risk
for mainly large hail and strong gusts during the evening.

...Mid-Atlantic...

Strong daytime heating of a very moist airmass will result in
1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. While deep-layer flow will remain modest,
forecast soundings do indicate around 25-30 kt effective shear
magnitudes. This may allow for some organization of thunderstorm
clusters by late afternoon. Most CAMs guidance indicate a
forward-propagating cluster moving across the DelMarVa area and
offshore the Mid-Atlantic coast by evening. Sufficient coverage of
storms and expected damaging gust potential appears high enough to
upgrade to a Slight (level 2 of 5) risk. 

...AZ...

Thunderstorms are expected to develop across the higher terrain of
southeast AZ/southwest NM Thursday afternoon. Steep lapse rates will
support around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. This activity may pose a risk for
isolated severe gusts as convection shifts southwest across lower
elevated through evening.

...Lower Great Lakes vicinity...

Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop within modest
instability ahead of a southward-sagging surface boundary on
Thursday. Gusty winds may accompany this activity, but severe
potential will likely be limited by poor lapse rates and modest
instability.

..Leitman.. 07/08/2026

$$