ACUS03 KWNS 191907
SWODY3
SPC AC 191907

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0207 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the central and
southern High Plains Thursday afternoon and evening.

...Synopsis...

A short-wave trough and associated mid-level jet streak initially
over the northern Rockies Thursday morning will translate southeast
into the central Rockies, within the base of a mid/upper-level low
situated over southern Saskatchewan. Elsewhere, a vorticity maximum,
possibly of convective origins, is forecast to progress from the
southern Plains toward the mid/lower MS and TN Valleys.

At the surface, a frontal system tied to the northern and central
Rockies trough is forecast to move through the northern High Plains,
while a front remains quasi-stationary from NC through the TN Valley
into Ozark Plateau.


...Central and Southern High Plains...

In the absence of appreciable boundary-layer moisture content, the
presence of steep low/mid-level lapse rates will support MLCAPE of
500-1000 J/kg from south of I-70 in the lee of the CO Front Range to
the Raton Mesa and points south. Low-level upslope flow coupled with
increased forcing for ascent downstream from the approaching
vorticity maximum are expected to foster isolated to widely
scattered thunderstorm development along the favored terrain
Thursday afternoon into evening. The presence of 30-40 kt deep-layer
shear will support the potential for some storm organization with an
attendant large-hail threat.


...Northern High Plains...

Diurnally enhanced thunderstorm development is expected to occur
across eastern parts of MT and WY into the western Dakotas, along
the surface front, and ahead of the mid-level trough. Limited
instability and vertical shear are expected to limited
severe-weather potential.

..Mead.. 05/19/2026

$$