ACUS11 KWNS 072001
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071959 
SDZ000-NEZ000-072200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1534
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0259 PM CDT Tue Jul 07 2026

Areas affected...Portions of western and central South
Dakota...parts of far northern Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 071959Z - 072200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Large hail and severe winds are possible as storms develop
by late afternoon/early evening. A watch will likely be needed this
afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Water vapor imagery shows a weak shortwave trough
moving into eastern Wyoming. Lift associated with this feature is
has promoted storm initiation near Chadron, NE, along the stationary
boundary. Additional cumulus development has also been noted on
visible satellite in central South Dakota. As surface heating
continues to erode MLCIN, additional storm development is probable.
Timing of development is not certain. Given current trends, greater
coverage is expected by late afternoon and certainly early evening
as the low-level jet increases. Mid-level lapse rates from the 18Z
observed UNR sounding were 8.3 C/km decreasing to 6.7 C/km in ABR.
With around 40-45 kt of effective shear, supercell structures
capable of large hail (up to 2.5 in.) and severe winds will be
possible. Some upscale growth could occur as the low-level jet
increases during the evening. This could lead to a greater severe
wind threat as convection moves east along the surface boundary.

..Wendt/Hart.. 07/07/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS...

LAT...LON   42770087 42550258 42650316 42830328 43200338 43660372
            44100389 44380365 44460283 44960012 44999941 44789854
            44069855 43259981 42770087 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN