ACUS11 KWNS 080313
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080313 
MNZ000-SDZ000-080445-

Mesoscale Discussion 1539
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1013 PM CDT Tue Jul 07 2026

Areas affected...West-central Minnesota and northeast South Dakota

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 469...470...

Valid 080313Z - 080445Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 469, 470
continues.

SUMMARY...A corridor of more focused severe wind potential is
emerging across west-central Minnesota. Wind speeds between 60-80
mph appear possible within the next 1-2 hours.

DISCUSSION...Latest reflectivity imagery from KABR shows the early
stages of a bowing segment and rear-inflow jet within a small MCS
developing across far northeast SD and west-central MN. Although the
easterly track of the MCS will mostly take it north of a surface
warm front draped to the south, echo top data and GOES IR imagery
shows deep convective development on the southern flank of the line,
hinting at the potential for more southeastward propagation in the
next couple of hours along the boundary. Regardless, moist
conditions downstream continue to support 2000-2500 J/kg MLCAPE
(even on the cool side of the warm front), and effective bulk shear
vectors remain very favorably aligned with the MCS for further
organization/intensification over the short-term. Based on these
radar observations and the downstream environment, wind speeds
within the MCS may be as high as 60-80 mph over the next 1-2 hours
across west-central MN.

..Moore.. 07/08/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...

LAT...LON   45789681 45959508 45909495 45759474 45419463 45249460
            44959462 44809474 44679506 44939670 45109694 45379688
            45629686 45789681 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN