ACUS11 KWNS 081816
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 081815 
WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-082015-

Mesoscale Discussion 1541
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0115 PM CDT Wed Jul 08 2026

Areas affected...Southeast Minnesota into central Wisconsin

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 081815Z - 082015Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and damaging winds are the primary
concerns with widely scattered to scattered storms this afternoon. A
watch is possible should convective trends warrant.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have initiated near a stationary boundary
in southern Minnesota. This activity is tied to an upstream
shortwave trough in western Minnesota per water vapor imagery.
Filtered heating through cirrus clouds has allowed temperatures to
rise into the low/mid 80s F. The very moist air will support around
1500 J/kg MLCAPE. Continued heating and increasing mid-level ascent
will eventually lead to widely scattered to scattered storms.
Isolated damaging winds and hail may occur with the strongest
storms, though low/mid-level lapse rates are not overly steep. The
surface reflection of the shortwave trough is also rather nebulous.
Even so, low-level shear is sufficient for weakly rotating storms
conditionally capable of a brief tornado. A watch may be needed this
afternoon.

..Wendt/Hart.. 07/08/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...MPX...DMX...

LAT...LON   43329122 43369242 43349357 43549433 44199412 44869066
            44888941 44618906 44128887 43748892 43608911 43548969
            43329122 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN