ACUS11 KWNS 081903 SWOMCD SPC MCD 081903 NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-082100- Mesoscale Discussion 1542 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 PM CDT Wed Jul 08 2026 Areas affected...portions of the central High Plains Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 081903Z - 082100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Scattered, high-based thunderstorms will bring a risk for severe wind gusts (with a couple of significant gusts possible) and isolated large hail this afternoon and evening. One or more Severe Thunderstorm Watches will likely be needed later this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Latest GOES visible satellite imagery depicts scattered thunderstorm development ongoing across the high-terrain from central Colorado northward into southeastern Wyoming. Aided by ascent ahead of a weak mid-level perturbation, continued heating and a modest upslope (easterly) wind component will continue to support the development of scattered, high-based thunderstorms through the afternoon. While moisture remains limited in the Colorado foothills (dewpoints in the 40s per latest surface analysis), deep-layer westerly flow will allow maturing convection to gradually interact with increasing moisture with eastward extent, which should promote gradual intensification with time. Steep low-level lapse rates (9+ C/km) and deep, well-mixed boundary layer profiles (LCLs of 2-3+ km) will promote efficient evaporative cooling and downward momentum transport, yielding a threat for primarily severe wind gusts (with a couple of significant wind gusts possible). Upscale growth into one or more linear clusters/segments is expected with time as cold pools gradually coalesce, yielding an increasing threat for severe wind gusts into this evening. With steep mid-level lapse rates in place, isolated large hail will also be possible (especially with any storms that are able to remain discrete) owing to modest strengthening of upper-level flow and elongation of hodographs with time. This potential will be locally greater farther to the north where better effective shear is already noted per latest mesoanalysis. One or more Severe Thunderstorm Watches will likely be needed in the next 1-2 hours to cover these threats. ..Chalmers/Hart.. 07/08/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 42760372 42780293 42630256 42330206 41640176 40330163 39080166 38470177 38050201 37920228 37940272 38300351 39230413 40770465 41970469 42400445 42760372 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN