ACUS11 KWNS 082044
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082044 
AZZ000-082245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1546
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0344 PM CDT Wed Jul 08 2026

Areas affected...portions of southern/southeastern Arizona

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 082044Z - 082245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development is
expected this afternoon, with strong to occasionally damaging wind
gusts possible.

DISCUSSION...Latest surface observations indicate temperatures have
warmed into the low-100s across portions of the Southwest as of 2045
UTC. As continued insolation results in convective temperatures
being breached, thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase over
the next 1-2 hours amid a plume of modestly enhanced mid-level
moisture. This moisture is supporting weak buoyancy (200-500 J/kg
MLCAPE) atop a deep, well-mixed boundary layer (LCLs around 3.5-4.0
km AGL). These inverted-v thermodynamic profiles will support
efficient evaporative cooling in downdrafts and the potential for
strong to occasionally damaging wind gusts. Weak deep-layer flow
(less than 15 kts sampled by the EMX VWP) and meager effective shear
are expected to largely temper the overall severe risk. Thus, watch
issuance is not expected.

..Chalmers/Thompson.. 07/08/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

LAT...LON   31220961 31820954 32670942 33180948 33570977 33711010
            33641063 33361142 33101180 32441209 31681232 31601229
            31241107 31220961 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH