ACUS11 KWNS 090053
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 090052 
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-090215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1551
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0752 PM CDT Wed Jul 08 2026

Areas affected...Parts of eastern CO into southwest NE/northwest KS

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 472...

Valid 090052Z - 090215Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 472
continues.

SUMMARY...A severe-wind threat may spread eastward through the
evening. Downstream WW issuance is possible.

DISCUSSION...As of 0045 UTC, convection is relatively disorganized
across northeast CO, though there has been some tendency for
expanding outflow and a transition to more of a cluster or linear
mode. As this convection spreads eastward, it will encounter richer
low-level moisture and stronger instability (with MLCAPE increasing
above 2000 J/kg), but there will also be a tendency for increasing
CINH with the onset of nocturnal cooling. If a sufficiently robust
cold pool can evolve this evening, then a storm cluster and possibly
a small MCS may be able to overcome the near-surface stability and
propagate  eastward through the evening, with a threat for at least
localized severe gusts (potentially near/above 75 mph due to
favorable lapse rates and DCAPE). Moist, low-level easterly flow
impinging upon the eastward-moving outflow renders this scenario
plausible, and downstream watch issuance is possible as convection
approaches the eastern extent of WW 472.

..Dean/Thompson.. 07/09/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...BOU...

LAT...LON   38600124 38650242 38710325 38950357 39600364 40240352
            40810315 40940172 40970109 40900072 40780049 40520027
            40070016 39680022 39240035 38990052 38600124 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN