ACUS11 KWNS 091915
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091915 
NYZ000-092115-

Mesoscale Discussion 1557
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0215 PM CDT Thu Jul 09 2026

Areas affected...Portions of western New York

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 091915Z - 092115Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to marginally severe wind gusts are possible along
and near the southern Lake Ontario shoreline. A watch is not
expected given the limited spatial extent of the threat.

DISCUSSION...A organized linear segment is ongoing near Toronto
driven by ascent from a shortwave trough. While the airmass near the
Lake Ontario shore is slightly cooler than surrounding areas, the
organization of the linear segment will likely allow it to propagate
some distance along the shoreline with aid from the lake breeze
boundary. The spatial extent of the threat is not expected to reach
farther inland than a county or two. Strong to marginally severe
wind gusts, particularly along the more exposed lake shore, are
possible.

..Wendt/Hart.. 07/09/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...

LAT...LON   42877729 42907891 42878019 43677928 43707631 43527607
            43167630 42877729 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH