ACUS11 KWNS 092045
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092045 
NMZ000-AZZ000-092245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1559
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0345 PM CDT Thu Jul 09 2026

Areas affected...portions of southeastern Arizona into southwestern
New Mexico

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 092045Z - 092245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing along the White Mountains will
progress southwestward through this evening with a threat for
isolated damaging wind gusts.

DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery depicts ongoing
thunderstorm development across the White Mountains of southeastern
Arizona and southwestern New Mexico amid a plume of enhanced
mid-level moisture along the eastern periphery of upper-level
ridging. Expectation is for these storms to gradually evolve
south-southwestward off of the high terrain through this evening. As
this evolution occurs, weak buoyancy (200-500 J/kg MLCAPE) based
atop a deep, well-mixed boundary layer (LCLs of 3.0-3.5 km AGL) will
support a risk for isolated damaging wind gusts. Weak effective
shear (less than 20 kts) and deep-layer flow (less than 15-20 kts
sampled by the EMX VWP) will largely limit storm organization and
preclude a more widespread severe risk. Thus, watch issuance is not
expected.

..Chalmers/Thompson.. 07/09/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

LAT...LON   31180890 31190823 31320813 32010813 32590816 32910825
            33230844 33430872 33590908 33650923 33660951 33500999
            33231056 32651117 31851179 31521201 31441197 31191111
            31151093 31180890 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH