ACUS11 KWNS 092053
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092053 
MOZ000-ARZ000-KSZ000-092300-

Mesoscale Discussion 1560
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0353 PM CDT Thu Jul 09 2026

Areas affected...Southeast Kansas into south-central Missouri and
northern Arkansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 092053Z - 092300Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...A watch is possible late this afternoon as storms form
along an outflow/differential heating boundary. Shear is sufficient
for marginal supercells capable of all hazards.

DISCUSSION...Airmass recovery continues in the wake of an MCV that
moved through Missouri earlier today. Temperatures to the southwest
of the outflow/differential heating boundary have risen in the upper
80s to low 90s F. Warm advection within this zone as well as near a
weak surface low in southeast Kansas will eventually initiate a few
thunderstorms. CAM guidance has generally suggested this will occur
by 5 PM CDT or thereabouts. Enhanced shear from the MCV (30-35 kt
effective shear) will promote marginal supercell structures. The
primary hazards will be isolated large hail and damaging winds.
Low-level flow is strong enough (see the KSGF VAD) to support
rotating storms. Should supercells maintain intensity, a risk for a
tornado could develop near the surface boundary.

..Wendt/Thompson.. 07/09/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...LZK...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   35929168 36789335 37309414 38079561 38119567 38319563
            38519485 38449350 37409164 36299095 35919162 35929168 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN