ACUS11 KWNS 161656
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 161656 
CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-161830-

Mesoscale Discussion 2381
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1156 AM CDT Fri Oct 16 2026

Areas affected...portions of PA into southern NY...NJ...DE...MD and
northern WV/VA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 161656Z - 161830Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated gusty winds may accompany showers and
thunderstorms over the next couple of hours across portions of
central PA southwestward into northern WV and western MD. Severe
potential may increase later this afternoon into early evening
toward southern NY and the DelMarVa vicinity.

DISCUSSION...Convection is gradually increasing in intensity across
western PA early this afternoon along/just ahead of a surface cold
front. Downstream, stronger heating is occurring within a corridor
of scattered to broken cloudiness across central PA into adjacent
portions of WV/western MD. Temperatures have warmed into the 70s
where this stronger heating has occurred, and weak destabilization
is underway. While instability and lapse rates are expected to
remain rather mild, strong deep-layer flow will support transient
organized bowing structures, and strong gusts at the surface will be
possible where more substantial heating occurs. Uncertainty exists
with north and east extent across the Mid-Atlantic/Southern New
England given persistent stratus and more muted heating. Convective
trends are being monitored for possible watch issuance.

..Leitman/Guyer.. 10/16/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...

LAT...LON   41927646 42207485 42157436 41927381 41757362 41417363
            41037356 40617376 40267413 39497553 39107674 39007719
            38917837 39007944 39188018 39578030 40018028 40457997
            41007920 41637754 41927646 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH