ACUS11 KWNS 191731
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191731 
INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-191930-

Mesoscale Discussion 0786
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

Areas affected...Lower Ohio River Valley

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 191731Z - 191930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase this
afternoon across much of the Ohio River Valley as daytime heating
brings the boundary layer to convective temperatures. These storms
will primarily be capable of damaging straight-line winds and hail.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have begun to develop within moist and
uncapped boundary layers where MLCAPE exceeds 2500 J/kg. Convective
coverage is expected to increase throughout the afternoon, though
will remain disorganized initially due to a lack of deep-layer
shear. Still, large environmental DCAPE, steep low-level lapse
rates, and relatively high PWATs will support strong downdrafts
capable of damaging wind gusts. Localized corridors of increased
threat could occur with any local organization along leading-edge
outflow boundaries or with outflow boundary interactions.

..Halbert/Hart.. 05/19/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...

LAT...LON   37589038 38458917 39578772 39918713 40028678 40098648
            40098622 40028577 39748540 39228521 38588528 38138563
            37308700 36448861 36388874 36108926 36118947 36148962
            36228993 36469026 36739039 37109047 37589038 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN