ACUS11 KWNS 192141
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 192140 
PAZ000-DEZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-192245-

Mesoscale Discussion 0793
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0440 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

Areas affected...portions of far southeast Pennsylvania into far
northern Virginia...central Maryland

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 192140Z - 192245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

SUMMARY...A damaging gust or two may occur with the stronger
downbursts. The severe threat is very sparse, and a WW issuance is
not expected.

DISCUSSION...Widely scattered pulse-cellular storms have matured
atop a well mixed boundary layer, characterized by low to mid 90s F
surface temperatures and 8-9 C/km low-level lapse rates. Vertical
shear, forcing, and mid-level lapse rates are all quite poor. As
such, the well-mixed boundary layer may promote enough evaporative
cooling with the stronger wet downbursts to support a damaging gust
or two. However, the severe threat is very low, with no WW issuance
anticipated.

..Squitieri/Mosier.. 05/19/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON   38657827 39607742 40067673 40277597 40097557 39747549
            39257579 38837639 38597680 38487721 38427770 38417801
            38657827 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH