ACUS11 KWNS 221828
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221827 
MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-222030-

Mesoscale Discussion 2083
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0127 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Areas affected...West Virginia and Maryland Panhandles into northern
and central Virginia

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 221827Z - 222030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms appear possible from mid-afternoon
into this evening. Damaging wind gusts are the primary hazard. A
watch issuance is not anticipated due to the limited areal coverage
of the threat.

DISCUSSION...Recent thunderstorm development has occurred over the
WV Panhandle, northwest of Harrisonburg, VA, amidst a moist and
moderately unstable air mass with MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg. Farther
east along the lee side of the Blue Ridge, visible satellite imagery
indicates deepening cumulus within a low-level upslope regime.
Latest time-lagged HRRR and RRFS ensemble guidance suggests that a
small cluster of thunderstorms may evolve out of those areas of
deepening moist convection over northern VA later this afternoon
into evening. 

The current VWP from Charleston, WV is sampling 30-40 kt of westerly
winds above 4 km AGL, which may contribute to some organization as
updrafts continue to mature this afternoon. When coupled with
steepening low-level lapse rates, the environment appears supportive
of locally damaging wind gusts as storms progress east across the
discussion area.

..Mead/Smith.. 08/22/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...

LAT...LON   38487947 38807935 39137920 39617890 39707838 39617788
            39107736 38497732 38027754 37647808 37677895 37687919
            37937950 38247953 38487947 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH