ACUS11 KWNS 221915 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221915 NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-222145- Mesoscale Discussion 2084 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Areas affected...portions of central and eastern Wyoming into the western Nebraska Panhandle and northeast Colorado Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 221915Z - 222145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...The threat for isolated occurrences of large hail and severe wind gusts is expected to increase by mid-afternoon and continue through this evening. A watch is currently not anticipated due to the limited coverage of the threat. DISCUSSION...Recent trends in visible satellite imagery show deepening moist convection along the Laramie Mountains and CO Front Range with additional development likely ahead of a well-defined MCV moving through central WY. Beneath a plume of steep mid-level lapse rates, current surface observations indicate a moist boundary layer characterized by dewpoints in the mid 50s to low 60s, yielding MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg. Latest objective analysis suggests the air mass across the adjacent High Plains remains capped; however, continued daytime heating and the glancing influence of the WY MCV should allow initial terrain-anchored storms to move into lower elevations later this afternoon into evening. Current VWPs and RAP-based forecast soundings indicate vertically veering wind profiles with around 30 kt of deep-layer shear, which will be supportive of at least episodic supercell structures capable of large hail. The potential for isolated severe wind gusts may become more likely by early evening, especially if storms can merge into clusters. ..Mead/Smith.. 08/22/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...UNR...BOU...CYS...RIW... LAT...LON 39800550 41380567 42410617 42980659 43970678 44480622 44330536 43750482 42360365 40850314 40080324 39670350 39320422 39330484 39800550 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN