ACUS11 KWNS 221947 SWOMCD SPC MCD 221946 LAZ000-TXZ000-222145- Mesoscale Discussion 2086 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 Areas affected...Eastern Texas into far western Louisiana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 221946Z - 222145Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated thunderstorms will be capable of strong to severe downburst winds through early evening across eastern Texas and far western Louisiana. This threat should be sufficiently isolated to preclude watch issuance. DISCUSSION...A recent 18 UTC sounding from SHV sampled very limited inhibition remaining across far west/northwest LA. Further west into eastern TX, temperatures are much warmer (100-106 F) with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. Modifying the SHV sounding suggests that SBCAPE values are likely approaching 3500 J/kg - much higher than depicted by recent mesoanalysis estimates - with virtually no lingering inhibition. Recent GOES imagery also shows an expanding and deepening cumulus field across eastern TX, bounded to the north by a residual outflow boundary and to the west by warmer 925-850 mb temperatures/capping. Consequently, a corridor appears to be emerging across east TX into western LA where thunderstorm development is likely in the coming hours. Weak forcing for ascent (mainly driven by weak low-level confluence and/or strong surface heating) suggests that overall storm coverage should remain somewhat limited. However, a combination of weak deep-layer shear, steep low-level lapse rates on the order of 8-9 C/km, strong buoyancy, and 1.8 to 2.0 inch PWAT values should support robust, water-loaded updraft development followed by strong downbursts. Recent high-res ensemble guidance hints at this potential and suggests localized swaths of 45-60 mph winds are possible. This activity should peak by 4-6 PM CDT before gradually diminishing with the loss of daytime heating after around 8 PM. Trends will be monitored, but the expectation for more limited storm coverage should negate the need for a watch. ..Moore/Smith.. 08/22/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD... LAT...LON 32669584 33119464 33139436 33009413 31379332 31159333 31009346 30339478 30329506 30429526 32229611 32509607 32669584 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH