ACUS11 KWNS 222031
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222030 
KYZ000-TNZ000-222230-

Mesoscale Discussion 2088
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0330 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Areas affected...portions of central and eastern Kentucky into
northern middle Tennessee

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 222030Z - 222230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...The threat for at least isolated severe storms is expected
to persist through this evening. Convective trends are being
monitored for a possible severe thunderstorm watch.

DISCUSSION...Over the past hour, thunderstorms have gradually
increased in areal coverage from northeast into central KY, ahead of
a cold front advancing into the northern part of the state. The
inflow air mass to these storms is relatively hot and moist, leading
to steep low-level lapse rates and MLCAPE ranging from around 1000
J/kg in northeast KY to as high as 2500-3000 J/kg near the
confluence of the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers. 

Regional VWPs indicate gradually strengthening mid and upper-level
winds this afternoon with deep-layer shear vectors oriented largely
perpendicular to the surface front, especially over western and
central KY. That is resulting in a semi-discrete storm mode with
recent reports of hail up to one inch. Further strengthening of
deep-layer shear is forecast through the remainder of the afternoon,
potentially leading to a greater supercell and associated large-hail
threat. Damaging wind potential may tend to increase by early
evening, especially if some clustering of storms can occur.

..Mead/Smith.. 08/22/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...OHX...PAH...

LAT...LON   36878749 36948734 38378467 38518352 38288280 37598271
            36858308 36118565 36138691 36348764 36878749 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN