ACUS11 KWNS 222049
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222049 
IDZ000-UTZ000-NVZ000-222245-

Mesoscale Discussion 2090
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0349 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Areas affected...portions of northeastern Nevada into northwestern
Utah and southern/eastern Idaho

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 222049Z - 222245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A locally greater risk for damaging/severe wind gusts may
develop across portions of the northern Great Basin through this
evening.

DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms have developed across portions
of the northern Great Basin, with a 61 mph wind gust recently
recorded near Pocatello, ID. Modifying regional 18z observed
soundings from BOI/LKN for current observations depicts deep,
well-mixed boundary layer profiles with LCLs of 2.5-3.0+ km.
Steepening low-to-mid level lapse rates below ~600 mb and modest
surface dewpoints ranging from the upper 40s to lower 50s F have
yielded the development of weak buoyancy (500 to locally 1000 J/kg
MLCAPE) underlying enhanced southwesterly, deep-layer flow to the
southwest of an upper low currently noted off the Pacific Northwest
coastline. 

Broadly, this enhanced flow (and accompanying 25-35 kts of effective
shear) along with inverted-v thermodynamic profiles should support
scattered thunderstorms and a risk for isolated severe/damaging wind
gusts across much of the northern Great Basin and northern Rockies.
A locally greater risk for damaging/severe wind gusts (up to 60-70
mph) is expected to materialize across northeastern Nevada,
northwestern Utah, and southern/eastern Idaho where recent
observations and latest guidance suggest relatively greater storm
coverage should intersect marginally more favorable mid-level flow
and low-level moisture. While coverage of damaging/severe gusts may
be locally greater within this corridor, the overall risk is
expected to remain too isolated to necessitate watch issuance.

..Chalmers/Smith.. 08/22/2026

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SLC...PIH...BOI...LKN...

LAT...LON   41001245 39841382 39561480 40021537 40691555 41351551
            42181528 43391448 43841414 44091370 44151300 44111231
            43861183 43381147 42751161 41491207 41001245 

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH